TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc6e1…4f54

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
58
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Commodities, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 53 out of 100; worst Serie A at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+59.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,140
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$381Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$233.38
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$250
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,170Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$630
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,089Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,089.12
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$44
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$636Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$564
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$168
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$165.3
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,066Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,066
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$152
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$439
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+1,011.1%+$1,547
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-34.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$168
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$340Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$1,659.99
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$224
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$332Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$332
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$206
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.6
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.3
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$98.8
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.19
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Poland win on 2025-10-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$5
All 11 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-31%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+32.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-53.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-55.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Juventus (-1.5)backed Udinese · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.1
Will Genoa win on 2025-10-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$5
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.7
All 3 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,640Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+43%+$705.89
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$965Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+45.1%+$435
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flyers vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$365.99
Golden Knights vs. Bluesbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$205
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+106.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Howard Bison vs. UMBC Retrieversbacked Howard Bison · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,845Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+106.6%+$1,967.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Oct 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-10-24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$6.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana reach $250 in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 2, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$163.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$24.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.