Champions League · resolved market
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e8c184599fdc77ea63cd69e2dabafaca436c0ab515cd2b6876c3f177bfe73b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmundof BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, Villarreal CF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Villarreal CF | 73c | 547.95$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Villarreal CF | 69c | 475.16$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.06 | 338 | 51.5%174 W · 164 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…e0cfbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 31c | 387.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 263$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.5 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Villarreal CF | 70c | 152.33$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 27c | 137.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.3 | 174 | 26.4%46 W · 128 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 131.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 29c | 88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 213 | 54%115 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 201 | 33.8%68 W · 133 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Villarreal CF | 72c | 39.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…7696backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 28c | 36.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…86e1backed Villarreal CF | 72c | 36.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7e…425ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…4f54backed Villarreal CF | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.