TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Suns vs. Mavericks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sunsof Suns, Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,542,074
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,649,094

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,542,074 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,666 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Mavericks46c242,197$112,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112,478.4925248.4%122 W · 130 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Suns54c65,000$35,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,90087144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Suns53c50,000$26,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,50024650%123 W · 123 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1602…3674backed Suns52c48,138$24,951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,187.82466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+37.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Mavericks48c43,788$21,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,018.342,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Mavericks45c40,754$18,339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,339.368843.2%38 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Suns52c36,163$18,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,402.8536148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Suns52c30,000$15,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,40038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Mavericks48c29,922$14,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,362.473237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.8wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Mavericks20c25,829$5,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,088.394,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Suns54c25,810$13,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,956.7359653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Suns53c23,808$12,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,180.772,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae4…15febacked Mavericks21c20,168$4,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,233.62520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Mavericks48c20,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,60066853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Mavericks52c19,406$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00034062.1%211 W · 129 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17db…5f6dbacked Suns52c19,220$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,220.052060%12 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Suns65c19,201$12,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,804.495,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b6…630cbacked Mavericks49c18,601$9,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,021.646352.4%33 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Mavericks0c17,131$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.311,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Suns54c16,345$8,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,518.561,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x00ce…93a9backed Suns12c13,800$1,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,1441100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.88per pick12cpaid+733.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Suns54c12,000$6,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5205850%29 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b8…cf0abacked Suns52c11,600$6,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,568666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+40.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Suns54c11,134$5,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,152.3944648%214 W · 232 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3e…ffffbacked Suns52c11,000$5,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,280785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+46.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Mavericks13c10,995$1,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.9127041.5%112 W · 158 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Mavericks48c10,924$5,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,243.670147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Suns56c10,839$6,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,805.5147748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d23…3edbbacked Mavericks49c10,700$5,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,243875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+55.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x194f…3d95backed Mavericks48c10,125$4,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,860.0813345.9%61 W · 72 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Suns55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50044337.9%168 W · 275 L-0.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Suns56c10,000$5,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,449.9969149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Mavericks13c9,306$1,178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.891,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbbd1…a192backed Mavericks49c9,300$4,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,557955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Mavericks44c9,102$3,969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,968.7861835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x119b…5dc9backed Suns52c8,600$4,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,128757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…96a6backed Mavericks50c8,571$4,263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,262.87933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-44.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b71…8044backed Suns53c8,000$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,7608939.3%35 W · 54 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7320…28b4backed Suns56c8,000$4,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,52012657.1%72 W · 54 L+11.4wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Suns76c7,445$5,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.721,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe82…b084backed Mavericks49c7,300$3,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,577728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-51.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x76bc…ce16backed Suns51c7,191$3,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,523.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eb6…4700backed Mavericks49c7,185$3,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,520.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4169…512cbacked Mavericks10c7,154$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.221330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdddc…eb9dbacked Suns50c6,935$3,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,467.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5de…45c1backed Mavericks50c6,930$3,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,46510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa22c…f126backed Mavericks49c6,810$3,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,33710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x126a…350bbacked Suns51c6,807$3,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,335.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe405…bf91backed Suns74c6,757$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,756.7648448.8%236 W · 248 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Mavericks47c6,383$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0002941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Suns40c6,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6005250%26 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks21c5,871$1,252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,252.068,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabe5…743dbacked Suns53c5,542$2,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,604.74475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+76.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Suns47c5,457$2,564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,892.98251.2%42 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Suns75c5,149$3,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.2385344%375 W · 478 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea34…0a92backed Suns54c5,124$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.836654.5%36 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Suns52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,40076850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0710…ebf5backed Suns52c5,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0fe…41fbbacked Suns52c4,756$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,284.64757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd735…968ebacked Suns55c4,545$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.452759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+45.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc17f…50aabacked Mavericks48c4,469$2,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.4224048.3%116 W · 124 L-13.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x891d…dd26backed Suns51c4,228$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.98351.8%43 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Mavericks46c4,206$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.329,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Mavericks45c4,182$1,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,880.7672450.7%367 W · 357 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Mavericks47c4,160$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.8135547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7c1…7c0dbacked Mavericks49c4,082$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x475f…97c6backed Suns51c4,082$2,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Mavericks0c4,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Suns57c4,000$2,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,72018047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Mavericks45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8001,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3657…6cd3backed Mavericks30c3,967$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.679256.5%52 W · 40 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Mavericks45c3,951$1,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,762.9796447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Suns52c3,861$2,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.844459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Mavericks46c3,814$1,740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.9492753.5%496 W · 431 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Mavericks2c3,807$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.468783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Mavericks36c3,625$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30013534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Suns58c3,524$2,031 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.2859646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52ed…8db7backed Mavericks47c3,510$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.8939349.1%193 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Suns52c3,500$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.3378445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Mavericks48c3,456$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.8845348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffa…0788backed Suns55c3,371$1,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.05850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3af3…1d8abacked Mavericks48c3,368$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,616.64944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19fd…5838backed Mavericks48c3,333$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.785925.4%15 W · 44 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Mavericks46c3,311$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.115736.8%21 W · 36 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b9d…269dbacked Mavericks7c3,226$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.7148739.8%194 W · 293 L-21.1wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Suns76c3,107$2,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.591,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Mavericks47c3,065$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.5295049.4%469 W · 481 L+10.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Mavericks46c3,000$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,38043051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Mavericks9c2,973$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.9181529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Mavericks47c2,865$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.952,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Mavericks50c2,850$1,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,433.51,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Suns54c2,793$1,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.611558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9289…80a5backed Mavericks48c2,770$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,329.61040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…9241backed Suns52c2,623$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.083432.4%11 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Suns52c2,617$1,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,248.783,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd62b…86d0backed Mavericks12c2,586$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005358.5%31 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Mavericks22c2,546$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.1318142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Suns52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20051753.8%278 W · 239 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae5…b896backed Suns53c2,500$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1752035%7 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-33.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbf2c…097cbacked Suns52c2,300$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1043177.4%24 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.