NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e4bb1d31f1cfbde8856b88917975f8d6869d6103d0f2328281f15febe1d2c78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $162,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $162,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Under | 50c | 103,281$52,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52,031.42 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 56,414$27,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,624.84 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Over | 50c | 30,000$14,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,150 | 596 | 53.4%318 W · 278 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed Under | 51c | 28,083$14,422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,421.76 | 127 | 40.2%51 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 49c | 11,917$5,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,077.76 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 49c | 11,012$5,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,616.12 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,100 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 52c | 8,500$4,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,081 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 51c | 7,194$3,648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,545.87 | 477 | 51.8%247 W · 230 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Under | 49c | 7,049$3,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,463.63 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,570 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 49c | 4,532$2,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.32 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 1,920$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.48 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 52c | 1,200$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 1,065$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 50c | 470$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.93 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 460$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.92 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1209…fa75backed Over | 49c | 459.18$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.18 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Over | 49c | 400$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Over | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Under | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Over | 49c | 299.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…94ddbacked Under | 49c | 207$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c7…4f36backed Over | 51c | 201$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4741backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd509…b06abacked Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…ff9cbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Over | 52c | 140.38$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c0…93fdbacked Over | 64c | 70$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a9f…4cc8backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc76…d76dbacked Under | 49c | 42.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 52c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…1744backed Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca2…f018backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 55c | 28.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd9…00b1backed Over | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 166 | 58.4%97 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730b…7f5bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 88 | 75%66 W · 22 L | +12.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…fb23backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-0.5)Suns won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. MavericksSuns won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.