NBA · resolved market
Suns vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63b3acfbdc31b8fb10407063c75ae47278fb05a20c87a97998b7bf4869c5f8f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Suns, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Suns | 54c | 4,103$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,904.58 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Mavericks | 41c | 2,276$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.8 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc04…f726backed Mavericks | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 207 | 46.4%96 W · 111 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa4…3ba0backed Mavericks | 75c | 877.32$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…5efcbacked Suns | 50c | 220$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fa…50e8backed Suns | 50c | 218$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe0…8348backed Suns | 49c | 215$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf985…d854backed Mavericks | 51c | 209$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5536…8637backed Mavericks | 50c | 208$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…8617backed Mavericks | 50c | 208$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c3…2f56backed Suns | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe91f…a9aebacked Suns | 50c | 190$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f7…2b92backed Mavericks | 50c | 185$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…9ea6backed Mavericks | 50c | 184$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…22a9backed Suns | 65c | 125.31$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Mavericks | 48c | 89.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Suns | 28c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Suns vs. Mavericks: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-0.5)Suns won
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. MavericksSuns won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.