NBA · resolved market
Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe88675f351f3bc6da378d725223b95a232f70eb93faf8ee7f917b24b12d28394
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sunsof Mavericks, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Mavericks | 47c | 12,553$5,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,899.74 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 53c | 5,843$3,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,743.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 53c | 2,472$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160.67 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Suns | 55c | 1,127$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.31 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc5…b639backed Suns | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -29%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Suns | 53c | 887.71$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.7 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Suns | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Suns | 53c | 439.07$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.86 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Mavericks | 47c | 255$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0987…6046backed Mavericks | 46c | 175$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d565backed Suns | 54c | 160$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02c5…1f4cbacked Suns | 55c | 128.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Mavericks | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Mavericks | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…93d7backed Suns | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 403 | 46.2%186 W · 217 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Suns | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1321…2286backed Mavericks | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Suns | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…368cbacked Suns | 55c | 90.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Mavericks | 47c | 77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e4…2d33backed Suns | 55c | 51.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Suns | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…3864backed Suns | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5c82backed Mavericks | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Suns | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Suns | 55c | 28.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc609…f29abacked Suns | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f72…9b5ebacked Suns | 55c | 22.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Mavericks (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-0.5)Suns won
- Spread: Suns (-2.5)Suns won
- Suns vs. MavericksSuns won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: 1H MoneylineSuns won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Over won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Over won
- Suns vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.