TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Rolex Paris Masters: Denis Shapovalov vs Joao Fonseca

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fonsecaof Shapovalov, Fonseca
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$617,940
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$829,806

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $617,940 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee00…cea1backed Shapovalov44c158,023$69,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69,529.9114345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7606…2836backed Fonseca56c156,238$87,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,742.357857.7%45 W · 33 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x620b…d4adbacked Fonseca51c25,000$12,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,324.741936.8%7 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-23.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Shapovalov18c19,475$3,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,560.2210845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Shapovalov46c14,702$6,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,700.6666949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Shapovalov40c11,805$4,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,682.241,17846.3%545 W · 633 L+0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ced…12b2backed Shapovalov26c11,000$2,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,843.173429.4%10 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ce3…3bc3backed Fonseca73c10,395$7,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,843.852864.3%18 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Fonseca61c8,708$5,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.398,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Shapovalov38c7,743$2,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,956.3111,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd123…d341backed Fonseca54c5,999$3,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,759.5424841.5%103 W · 145 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Fonseca62c5,972$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,271.775448.1%26 W · 28 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf0…153ebacked Shapovalov58c5,764$3,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,3312119%4 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.23per pick42cpaid-58.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9518…c9e3backed Shapovalov15c5,487$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.09633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+40.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Shapovalov45c4,985$2,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,243.1216644.6%74 W · 92 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Shapovalov39c4,878$1,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,925.022,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Shapovalov50c4,809$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.1365242.8%279 W · 373 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Shapovalov42c4,713$1,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.142,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5422…a780backed Fonseca50c4,153$2,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.543857.9%22 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Shapovalov38c3,600$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3687147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb26a…48dabacked Fonseca40c3,571$1,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1551643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3461…4629backed Shapovalov45c3,000$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,357.492450%12 W · 12 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb672…e4e3backed Fonseca76c2,779$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.91855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2752…8ce3backed Fonseca78c2,750$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.94757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb7a7…d3abbacked Fonseca58c2,685$1,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.881283.3%10 W · 2 L+4.8wins+0.40per pick43cpaid+97%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Fonseca76c2,604$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.999245.7%42 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Fonseca62c2,560$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.6759151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Fonseca55c2,500$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12544360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd595…b30bbacked Fonseca61c2,398$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.581250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Shapovalov38c2,151$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.2736440.9%149 W · 215 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60cc…f0dfbacked Fonseca62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76014549%71 W · 74 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Shapovalov22c2,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4402520%5 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-48.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e4…5bf6backed Fonseca60c1,803$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.220653.4%110 W · 96 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Fonseca59c1,692$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.1938348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4766…0286backed Shapovalov45c1,623$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e9c…ab80backed Fonseca53c1,499$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.53534.3%12 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x106b…4e8bbacked Fonseca65c1,495$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.451353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb58…86a4backed Shapovalov38c1,380$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.46147.5%29 W · 32 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x671a…4541backed Fonseca55c1,267$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.273265.6%21 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc7…cf36backed Shapovalov44c1,260$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.37955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Fonseca56c1,250$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.237152.1%37 W · 34 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebe6…d09bbacked Shapovalov32c1,188$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.09130%0 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Fonseca55c1,096$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.3414546.2%67 W · 78 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ef5…325ebacked Fonseca62c1,022$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.219961.6%61 W · 38 L+4.4wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed Fonseca63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3706036.7%22 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Shapovalov45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45025244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dcd…1722backed Shapovalov15c999.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.516126.2%16 W · 45 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa576…89a4backed Shapovalov39c999.97$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.492441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee6b…8486backed Fonseca67c945.29$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.61050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b59…232fbacked Fonseca34c882.35$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.353852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8de5…e957backed Fonseca57c877.19$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.199452.1%49 W · 45 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba06…0004backed Shapovalov24c863.9$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.815151%77 W · 74 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Shapovalov23c854.55$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19619131.4%60 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919a…c017backed Fonseca80c800.46$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.091040%4 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-43%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe626…2fe6backed Fonseca51c799.99$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3881844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Shapovalov43c796.99$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.681,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Shapovalov38c789.47$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007238.9%28 W · 44 L+0.3wins0.00per pick38cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Shapovalov40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013253.8%71 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Fonseca55c729.16$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.1646556.1%261 W · 204 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed Fonseca55c720.89$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.8910060%60 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Shapovalov41c700$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28757645.5%262 W · 314 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd02…60e0backed Fonseca68c650$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.214845.8%22 W · 26 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed Shapovalov37c648.47$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.091,65550.1%829 W · 826 L+30.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ada…43b0backed Fonseca80c626.42$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.423852.1%124 W · 114 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20eb…0bddbacked Fonseca60c609.95$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.981546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09b6…f48dbacked Shapovalov34c599.99$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.932050%160 W · 160 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa253…7630backed Shapovalov18c574.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.655632.1%18 W · 38 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30ef…70dfbacked Shapovalov42c533.09$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.4344125.4%112 W · 329 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Shapovalov38c520.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.159546.3%44 W · 51 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+35.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xade8…b0bdbacked Shapovalov38c514.41$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.4615832.3%51 W · 107 L-13.6wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Fonseca60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf72c…f818backed Fonseca27c500$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3652030%6 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick24cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x347b…006ebacked Fonseca77c498.18$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Shapovalov42c468.89$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.8217741.8%74 W · 103 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf332…3c89backed Shapovalov43c464.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040141.9%168 W · 233 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa2…cf15backed Shapovalov41c448.78$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18330339.3%119 W · 184 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Shapovalov39c444.28$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5762742.4%266 W · 361 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa844…7d5fbacked Fonseca71c440.82$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.821442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-36.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Shapovalov32c434.5$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.972,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9fe8…6355backed Shapovalov39c430$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2baa…e6dbbacked Fonseca61c430$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd01…d5acbacked Shapovalov38c428.95$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1631369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+71.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb406…ebaabacked Fonseca48c416.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.671163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8bd…df80backed Shapovalov41c395.12$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16222744.5%101 W · 126 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9b2…15b5backed Shapovalov53c376.02$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b32…3f5fbacked Fonseca70c365.49$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.613710.8%4 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-58.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf515…0805backed Fonseca60c357.79$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.513066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bf4…952ebacked Fonseca34c352.31$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.333855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+24.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe006…b06dbacked Fonseca58c350.19$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.241172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x290f…7e47backed Fonseca60c342.72$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.72450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Shapovalov51c339.83$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.8675547.8%361 W · 394 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Fonseca61c327.87$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.8765651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Fonseca64c313.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.443158.2%251 W · 180 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Fonseca59c300.28$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8422840.4%92 W · 136 L-0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Fonseca80c300$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6115860.8%96 W · 62 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7e…ba65backed Shapovalov40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-55.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde44…cb51backed Fonseca34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1213435.1%47 W · 87 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb75d…9d01backed Fonseca55c280$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12612154.5%66 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f1…893bbacked Shapovalov29c275.06$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick45cpaid-73%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Fonseca77c270.18$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.142147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.7wins-0.18per pick65cpaid-31.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.