TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Trail Blazers vs. Jazz

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Trail Blazers, Jazz
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$716,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$746,815

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $716,011 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x68dd…f0b2backed Jazz43c106,514$45,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,617.3351350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jazz42c53,171$22,448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,448.322,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Trail Blazers58c40,000$23,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,799.951428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-46.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Trail Blazers57c39,367$22,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,969.568843.2%38 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Trail Blazers59c38,731$22,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,879.565433.3%18 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3657…6b14backed Trail Blazers58c35,209$20,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,787.762665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Jazz34c31,493$10,607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,606.9785742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Jazz44c30,000$13,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,199.9934645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Trail Blazers55c25,000$13,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,249.9738248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Trail Blazers54c17,709$9,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,190.4726038.1%99 W · 161 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Jazz4c15,925$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.6281529.4%240 W · 575 L-37.0wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Trail Blazers56c15,141$8,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,662.091,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Trail Blazers56c13,945$7,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,105.3671052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Jazz33c13,520$4,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,480.3647144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Trail Blazers57c13,362$7,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,745.6711558.3%67 W · 48 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Trail Blazers57c13,000$7,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5904766%31 W · 16 L+7.2wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x25cc…9297backed Jazz43c12,411$5,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,336.5916942%71 W · 98 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Jazz0c12,386$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.521,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b2…d101backed Jazz44c11,312$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00016251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Trail Blazers57c11,008$6,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,755.812160.3%73 W · 48 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Jazz42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,20035235.8%126 W · 226 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Trail Blazers57c10,000$5,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3003759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Jazz51c8,398$4,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,324.7466744.5%297 W · 370 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc35a…e5d8backed Jazz45c7,852$3,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,549.66440.6%26 W · 38 L-9.1wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-28.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Jazz1c7,490$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.458783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Trail Blazers56c6,574$3,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,869.3455346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jazz7c6,455$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.688,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60cd…a1b6backed Trail Blazers51c6,195$3,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,060.888251.2%42 W · 40 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Trail Blazers80c5,943$4,731 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.532,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Jazz42c5,909$2,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,481.6774748.5%362 W · 385 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Trail Blazers56c5,847$3,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,593.0644459.7%265 W · 179 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Jazz54c5,680$3,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,070.6715549.7%77 W · 78 L-6.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Jazz20c5,582$1,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,115.211,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Trail Blazers55c5,452$2,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,453.361,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Trail Blazers59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,05047748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Jazz12c4,300$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51647535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc610…707abacked Trail Blazers12c4,260$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,748.8475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick28cpaid+1,408.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Trail Blazers64c4,150$2,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.331,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Jazz43c4,010$1,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,724.317250%86 W · 86 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc2…b145backed Trail Blazers57c3,510$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.081266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Jazz1c3,490$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.147211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Jazz6c3,083$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.191,11341.6%463 W · 650 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Trail Blazers58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,26018047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad23…47c4backed Jazz22c3,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6503933.3%13 W · 26 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Trail Blazers57c2,891$1,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,243.2138253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Jazz42c2,773$1,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.2361835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Trail Blazers55c2,500$1,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1259855.1%54 W · 44 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Jazz37c2,500$925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.9512334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d4…ad20backed Jazz43c2,326$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006448.4%31 W · 33 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86a3…33dbbacked Jazz43c2,143$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.494045%18 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Jazz1c2,063$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.011,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42e…8d89backed Jazz42c1,994$837 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.485149%25 W · 26 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Jazz14c1,927$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.9717540.6%71 W · 104 L-0.6wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Jazz42c1,878$789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.954747.5%260 W · 287 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Trail Blazers57c1,860$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.7964651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Trail Blazers57c1,762$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.6169852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Trail Blazers56c1,730$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.276249.5%377 W · 385 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Jazz1c1,550$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.88820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Trail Blazers56c1,518$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.862,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Jazz42c1,507$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.117051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers56c1,504$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.322,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e8d…3eeabacked Trail Blazers48c1,460$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.031741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-17.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…420bbacked Jazz27c1,453$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39529458.5%172 W · 122 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b42…e233backed Jazz36c1,401$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Jazz50c1,397$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.4731044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd8…aeabbacked Trail Blazers56c1,343$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.8630947.6%147 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69a7…ef6bbacked Trail Blazers53c1,256$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.22152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers56c1,207$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.289,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Jazz27c1,193$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.4247448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6941…efd5backed Trail Blazers56c1,138$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.35040%20 W · 30 L-7.1wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-26.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x54db…e47bbacked Jazz5c1,136$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.673633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Jazz5c1,134$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6717335.8%62 W · 111 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Jazz20c1,111$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.5611245.5%51 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7207…1ce7backed Trail Blazers56c1,071$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$471.431070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2102…25f6backed Jazz45c1,071$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.951145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58d…914abacked Jazz29c1,024$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013860.1%83 W · 55 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb43…9d70backed Jazz5c1,018$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508936%32 W · 57 L-6.7wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Jazz3c1,016$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4864517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Trail Blazers59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4103966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x942c…fb3abacked Trail Blazers57c1,000$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4305653.6%30 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9882…d3bdbacked Trail Blazers59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+64.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Jazz29c999.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2901,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a96…203cbacked Jazz41c999.96$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.98540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Trail Blazers56c999.95$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.9875347.5%358 W · 395 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c1c…f784backed Jazz43c930.23$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Trail Blazers74c929$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.22,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Jazz40c866.8$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.721,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x500e…5822backed Jazz61c819.67$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Trail Blazers49c749.99$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.551037.5%191 W · 319 L+1.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e63…1cedbacked Jazz42c714.29$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30024323.9%58 W · 185 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6238…459bbacked Trail Blazers59c700$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+62.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc787…4702backed Jazz42c700$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29440%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x935d…151fbacked Trail Blazers59c690$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Jazz24c667.85$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.0836148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Jazz43c667.16$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.8824634.1%84 W · 162 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59eb…fc50backed Jazz3c648.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd5…7236backed Trail Blazers39c601.32$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.573237.5%12 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d28…932abacked Jazz44c599.99$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.524835.1%87 W · 161 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Trail Blazers57c590$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.757760.5%349 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Jazz43c581.4$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2504348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.