NBA · resolved market
Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2743429d998004af3e8806453ba76659ee562098f1880955009f1cdb6f99adab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jazzof Trail Blazers, Jazz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,497
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,497 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 25,000$12,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,601.17 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Jazz | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Jazz | 48c | 4,722$2,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,455.26 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 3,584$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.67 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf556…70cdbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 3,049$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,585.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Jazz | 49c | 2,938$1,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,509.07 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32c…8265backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 2,499$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jazz | 47c | 2,107$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Jazz | 48c | 2,028$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 1,830$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.9 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 1,473$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.19 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bd…0849backed Jazz | 48c | 1,305$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce2…77d4backed Jazz | 48c | 1,138$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85fb…7c3abacked Jazz | 54c | 1,115$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.73 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 890.67$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.55 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Jazz | 49c | 788$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.26 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 750$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.5 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…390abacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 570$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.1 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69e1…6851backed Jazz | 47c | 570$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bfa…c28fbacked Jazz | 48c | 476$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c06…5fdcbacked Jazz | 51c | 432$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc0…0606backed Jazz | 51c | 412$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 380$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59e…2cadbacked Jazz | 51c | 377$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.73 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…f1cebacked Jazz | 51c | 369$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf6d…69ffbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 368$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8187…c59ebacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 367$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5a…ec0ebacked Jazz | 51c | 366$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b08…0327backed Jazz | 51c | 358$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…6a9fbacked Jazz | 51c | 327$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…e420backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 326$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d2…e13dbacked Jazz | 51c | 325$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.25 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…195abacked Jazz | 51c | 322$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…31c0backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 321$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb08c…9b35backed Jazz | 51c | 312$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec97…4e79backed Jazz | 51c | 281$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Jazz | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 192$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc190…917fbacked Jazz | 48c | 130$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jazz | 48c | 109$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfde0…c132backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 33.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Jazz | 52c | 25.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Jazz | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5096…6634backed Jazz | 49c | 20.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…3a67backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-1.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Trail Blazers (-3.5)Jazz won
- Trail Blazers vs. JazzTrail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: 1H O/U 119.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 231.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 232.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 233.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 234.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Jazz: O/U 235.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.