TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1137…74e9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: NFL, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 62 out of 100; worst MLB at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2356.5%13 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+103.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
NFL — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$182.35
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,402Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+123.1%+$2,955.44
Patriots vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$295
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,396Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+69.7%+$973.23
Texans vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+73%+$277.09
49ers vs. Seahawksbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Bills vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$614Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+96.1%+$590.12
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+92.3%+$96
Chargers vs. Patriotsbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$70
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+334.8%+$76.98
Packers vs. Bearsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$183.86
Packers vs. Steelersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$4,725Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+376.2%+$17,775
Buccaneers vs. Lionsbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,737Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,736.56
Falcons vs. 49ersbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,256Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,256
Steelers vs. Bengalsbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$310Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$310
Eagles vs. Giantsbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$62.6
Chiefs vs. Jaguarsbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$168Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+619.8%+$1,039.31
Patriots vs. Billsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$195
Commanders vs. Chargersbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+240.1%+$589.5
Titans vs. Cardinalsbacked Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+488.2%+$251
Buccaneers vs. Seahawksbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$126.4
Broncos vs. Eaglesbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$217Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+361.5%+$783.33
Vikings vs. Brownsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$659Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+150.2%+$989.44
All 23 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-70.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+82.3%+$225.73
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$169.47
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$79.96
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$103.05
Australian Open Men's: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritzbacked Fritz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,218Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$3,218.29
Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$101.7
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$104
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Bublik vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+66.7%+$400
Australian Open Men's: Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tienbacked Medvedev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$343Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$342.76
Australian Open Men's: Alexander Zverev vs Francisco Cerundolobacked Cerundolo · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Valentin Vacherot win the 2026 Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.19
Devils vs. Sharksbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$737Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$736.79
Avalanche vs. Starsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.37
All 3 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jays vs. Angelsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Reds vs. Bravesbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$295.65
Phillies vs. Raysbacked Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$197.79
All 3 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$118
Will China join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$313Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$313.3
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?backed Bitcoin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$105
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$164.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Indianabacked Miami · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$257.18
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.