Tennis · resolved market
Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Australian Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a07c5ebf7294febe753c18e89a29c74691e700dd61aa6d67081a6326538e887
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,042,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $340,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,042,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes | 0c | 114,299$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.92 | 116 | 3.4%4 W · 112 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -91.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f7…00f9backed Yes | 0c | 102,078$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.42 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 2c | 80,949$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540.07 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -80.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…eef4backed Yes | 1c | 79,453$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$868.54 | 191 | 34%65 W · 126 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 0c | 49,667$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 227 | 23.8%54 W · 173 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 1c | 28,482$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.84 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9a…099fbacked Yes | 1c | 25,192$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.75 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 24,819$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc285…a33cbacked Yes | 0c | 24,775$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…74e9backed Yes | 0c | 21,527$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12fd…be65backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 7cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 0c | 19,947$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…f407backed Yes | 0c | 19,722$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 99 | 6.1%6 W · 93 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7c…ef52backed Yes | 1c | 17,700$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Yes | 1c | 15,821$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…83f0backed Yes | 0c | 14,182$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -95.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 1c | 13,477$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -8.8wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf64d…58d2backed Yes | 2c | 12,867$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.23 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 24cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…2edbbacked Yes | 0c | 12,434$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…476dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,045$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 100 | 28%28 W · 72 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf397…e1dabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,443$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 1c | 8,892$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 1c | 7,159$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a2…bef8backed Yes | 1c | 7,064$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c5…8356backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…38b6backed Yes | 0c | 6,860$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…6fbebacked Yes | 0c | 6,804$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 1c | 6,713$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d51…6c59backed Yes | 1c | 6,152$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e5…1d48backed Yes | 2c | 5,947$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,429$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a5…dea0backed Yes | 0c | 5,068$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Yes | 0c | 4,718$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91fd…1cdebacked Yes | 0c | 4,621$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…81dabacked Yes | 0c | 4,490$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…df41backed Yes | 1c | 4,286$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | -63%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Yes | 0c | 3,738$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Yes | 1c | 3,500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.57 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 3c | 3,390$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 2c | 3,150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48df…e4c9backed Yes | 1c | 2,735$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 177 | 46.9%83 W · 94 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 1c | 2,711$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 289 | 33.2%96 W · 193 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab1…5b1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,558$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a8…7e9bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,386$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 0c | 2,156$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…98a7backed Yes | 1c | 2,034$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…bd20backed Yes | 1c | 1,927$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,779$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 1c | 1,748$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…ed97backed Yes | 1c | 1,576$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7063…3afebacked Yes | 1c | 1,538$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f4…c99cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,518$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ad…da5dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…4af0backed Yes | 1c | 969$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65fb…830bbacked Yes | 1c | 899$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf1b…29d8backed Yes | 2c | 557.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Australian Open?this page
- Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Alexander Bublik win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Cameron Norrie win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?Yes won
- Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Denis Shapovalov win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Frances Tiafoe win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Jakub Mensik win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Karen Khachanov win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Stefanos Tsitsipas win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Tallon Griekspoor win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Tommy Paul win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
- Will Valentin Vacherot win the 2026 Australian Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.