Tennis · resolved market

Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Australian Open?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20ae672dba136fb0c1e2aa1110ede10380cc680630f21255c01b5b1ef2121d1c

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 26, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $755,349
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $316,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $755,349 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	0c	149,909$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.5	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes	0c	101,700$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.35	191	34%65 W · 126 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	0c	52,645$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.1	227	23.8%54 W · 173 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Yes	0c	43,340$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.81	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	31,484$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.93	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38eb…5257backed Yes	0c	31,010$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.52	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5c6…38b6backed Yes	0c	25,067$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.7	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc285…a33cbacked Yes	0c	22,918$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-89.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9952…2edbbacked Yes	0c	22,500$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb30…1485backed Yes	0c	20,139$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb623…476dbacked Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	100	28%28 W · 72 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes	0c	20,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.97	178	23%41 W · 137 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0767…f407backed Yes	0c	13,365$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	99	6.1%6 W · 93 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb8…753bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	191	29.8%57 W · 134 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes	0c	9,919$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.84	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked Yes	0c	8,022$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.71	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed Yes	0c	7,845$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-95.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee28…8266backed Yes	0c	7,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.87	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	+11.5wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	+12%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes	0c	6,361$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-80.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7334…81dabacked Yes	0c	6,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-89.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46b3…d3debacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+3.2wins	+0.27per pick	48cpaid	+53.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	0c	3,930$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	459	9.6%44 W · 415 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	3,873$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe901…3139backed Yes	0c	3,843$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	238	32.4%77 W · 161 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-24%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182f…87d2backed Yes	0c	3,400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	53	69.8%37 W · 16 L	+6.3wins	+0.12per pick	58cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc067…619cbacked Yes	0c	2,726$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2453…7ecebacked Yes	0c	2,618$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Australian Open?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event