Tennis · resolved market

Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Australian Open?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96d0b9a697ac2cfbf5654a1e9449abbaf5861a7d77dc6ee47c7f60a99670954a

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $414,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $189,484

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $414,933 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf988…d63bbacked Yes	1c	63,914$379 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.46	63	31.7%20 W · 43 L	-6.4wins	-0.10per pick	42cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	1c	32,704$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.11	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf72c…f818backed Yes	1c	26,410$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.74	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c80…02c3backed Yes	0c	25,090$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.36	35	25.7%9 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe507…1258backed Yes	1c	23,630$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.78	56	23.2%13 W · 43 L	-4.7wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x050f…6b27backed Yes	0c	23,423$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.98	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-75.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf397…e1dabacked Yes	1c	20,368$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.5	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11d5…3408backed Yes	1c	16,135$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes	1c	13,945$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.73	227	37.4%85 W · 142 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c6…38b6backed Yes	1c	11,976$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.87	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	46cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes	0c	10,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.96	178	23%41 W · 137 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee28…8266backed Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	104	43.3%45 W · 59 L	+11.5wins	+0.11per pick	32cpaid	+12%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes	1c	8,386$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.32	36	47.2%17 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	43cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	0c	7,880$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	227	23.8%54 W · 173 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	6,630$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.21	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1574…64c9backed Yes	1c	5,657$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.19	476	39.1%186 W · 290 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c1…2dd3backed Yes	1c	5,558$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.91	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e58…8573backed Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe706…6921backed Yes	1c	4,013$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.1	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c5…fdc2backed Yes	1c	3,990$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb92a…c1cebacked Yes	1c	3,644$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	0c	3,584$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.95	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,424$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.89	459	9.6%44 W · 415 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Yes	1c	3,400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	643	50.2%323 W · 320 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b9…6194backed Yes	1c	2,816$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	2,592$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.89	108	9.3%10 W · 98 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed Yes	0c	2,551$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	52	1.9%1 W · 51 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-95.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	1c	2,453$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-61%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	2,343$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	78	3.8%3 W · 75 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-55%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x82c0…315abacked Yes	1c	2,143$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.21per pick	13cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f0…5fcabacked Yes	1c	2,110$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ddd…024dbacked Yes	1c	1,956$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05ab…b10abacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	5cpaid	+19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Australian Open?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event