Tennis · resolved market

Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Australian Open?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58ab3240b81a1dd867cdff69ff485ad62d86b2b2691f7fd7664279a1e2db1012

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $301,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $124,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $301,671 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 5 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes	0c	99,999$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	279	44.1%123 W · 156 L	+5.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2727…eef4backed Yes	0c	85,659$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.76	191	34%65 W · 126 L	+6.4wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0767…f407backed Yes	0c	14,887$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.39	99	6.1%6 W · 93 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes	0c	10,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.23	178	23%41 W · 137 L	-8.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe901…3139backed Yes	0c	6,333$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	238	32.4%77 W · 161 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-24%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Ugo Humbert win the 2026 Australian Open?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event