NBA · resolved market

Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc390c0535c2562add450c4371e2a8b83a3cc68c92f3c1dc18db914843847050b

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,252
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,252 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Yes	58c	10,100$5,858 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,242	113	33.6%38 W · 75 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x725b…8016backed No	42c	7,625$3,203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,202.53	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+42.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314a…2fbdbacked No	42c	1,042$438 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.55	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d54…6022backed No	42c	681.21$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.11	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4900…4a72backed No	78c	468.64$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.13	59	40.7%24 W · 35 L	-12.5wins	-0.21per pick	62cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	67c	385.41$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.67	908	63.9%580 W · 328 L	+80.6wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked No	74c	319.23$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.23	153	49%75 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25a1…67b0backed Yes	26c	300$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+90.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes	45c	200$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+33.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Yes	54c	194.37$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.15	894	44.4%397 W · 497 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8b…c9f8backed Yes	26c	183.77$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.99	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd355…776cbacked Yes	34c	183.53$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.98	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.17per pick	38cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e34…9434backed No	49c	165.1$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.9	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79d2…13aabacked Yes	61c	160.1$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.44	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked No	56c	157.53$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.68	171	62.6%107 W · 64 L	+10.1wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb871…d447backed Yes	60c	145.37$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.51	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	+4.8wins	+0.11per pick	45cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9938…6eecbacked Yes	27c	136.87$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.58	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.73per pick	27cpaid	+267%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9c7…36d1backed No	42c	119.09$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.02	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+72%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5997…5448backed No	42c	114.9$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.26	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0115…ac79backed No	58c	112.93$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	50	56%28 W · 22 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No	42c	110.03$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.21	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91c8…3ba8backed Yes	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x81be…a441backed Yes	43c	108.05$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.25	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-4.5wins	-0.20per pick	43cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed No	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	1,602	11.8%189 W · 1,413 L	-4.8wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes	15c	100$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85	258	45%116 W · 142 L	-10.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf22b…7eabbacked No	49c	99.99$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.14per pick	45cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0636…8e02backed Yes	25c	95.5$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.63	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.26per pick	34cpaid	+132.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes	18c	95.08$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.97	256	42.2%108 W · 148 L	+5.9wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160d…6f25backed Yes	39c	64.47$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.33	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d79…1aabbacked Yes	60c	48.41$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.13	34	58.8%20 W · 14 L	+2.8wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1359…f5a6backed Yes	37c	48.11$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.31	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f3b…392bbacked Yes	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.19per pick	59cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3664…b1a0backed Yes	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Yes	26c	42.79$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.66	730	51.8%378 W · 352 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d8f…f631backed Yes	41c	39.46$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.11	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-19%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	74c	37.08$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.68	464	26.1%121 W · 343 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No	56c	36.98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.71	2,153	51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L	+76.7wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No	52c	34.2$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	227	50.2%114 W · 113 L	+24.8wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd8e4…a9cfbacked Yes	59c	19.84$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.13	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	54c	19.83$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.12	844	43%363 W · 481 L	-40.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No	75c	15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	64cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event