NBA · resolved market
Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ccfd8e9b999fec9400112de9a1dc4dc7dc5423b8d5c4ad6c328ab992fcbf8a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,871
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac25…433fbacked No | 14c | 101,860$14,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87,283.68 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 8c | 13,366$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,359.96 | 171 | 62.6%107 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…8016backed No | 3c | 5,510$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,360.52 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed31…d9c8backed Yes | 74c | 4,613$3,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,390.45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7110…b042backed Yes | 69c | 1,899$1,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 50cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…f6b5backed Yes | 62c | 1,611$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +374.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 38c | 1,111$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.82 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed No | 9c | 599.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.99 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…7823backed No | 10c | 478.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed No | 7c | 411$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.7 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | +14.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 409.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.06 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5534…1036backed Yes | 54c | 364.66$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 351$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.61 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked No | 4c | 310.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +256.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked Yes | 75c | 306.12$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 59c | 303.16$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d8…ac5ebacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…fd3abacked No | 18c | 290.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…b28bbacked No | 10c | 242.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.72 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 7c | 200$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…6bbdbacked No | 8c | 186.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.74 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.15 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81be…a441backed Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 70c | 118.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099e…991abacked No | 28c | 105.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.4wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +43%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 60c | 98.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.37 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…e350backed No | 28c | 70.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d970backed No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 52.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 74c | 39.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd961…35debacked Yes | 68c | 23.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb23…8189backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will Atlanta Hawks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Denver Nuggets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Golden State Warriors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Houston Rockets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Phoenix Suns advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Portland Trail Blazers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Toronto Raptors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.