NBA · resolved market
Will Denver Nuggets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91ab379485972764cb08778c9681f973c3c2743dc41b3ed060dbd59dc72573c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,304
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,304 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5b7…5ee3backed No | 56c | 10,000$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,399.99 | 113 | 33.6%38 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed No | 17c | 5,785$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,801.25 | 135 | 34.1%46 W · 89 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…c2f0backed Yes | 66c | 5,728$3,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,786.3 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 32c | 5,409$1,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,663.7 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…433fbacked Yes | 67c | 5,000$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,350 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 33c | 3,205$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.91 | 171 | 62.6%107 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…65a6backed Yes | 76c | 2,362$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,795.66 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 34c | 1,715$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.64 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed Yes | 76c | 1,515$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.23 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 22c | 1,138$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.68 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 78c | 1,101$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.78 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked No | 41c | 888$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.92 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed Yes | 54c | 811.33$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.57 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…8016backed No | 22c | 303.65$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.29 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6026…2704backed No | 43c | 245.23$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.23 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 58c | 242.5$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.95 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…1e53backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91c8…3ba8backed No | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9599…a226backed No | 28c | 206.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.97 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa480…9248backed Yes | 77c | 205.38$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.77 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed No | 24c | 201.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.89 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 158.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…b241backed Yes | 65c | 153$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4a6bbacked Yes | 56c | 130.32$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb90f…ea7abacked Yes | 77c | 128.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.62 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed No | 24c | 127.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.13 | 917 | 46.9%430 W · 487 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…dbaabacked Yes | 57c | 121.06$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed Yes | 66c | 101.55$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…180abacked Yes | 68c | 98.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.69 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -11.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 40c | 96.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c6…09a2backed Yes | 59c | 96.25$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 17c | 89.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.76 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81df…d751backed Yes | 46c | 85.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 30c | 84.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.24 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Yes | 33c | 76.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe506…1bccbacked Yes | 68c | 72.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.04 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b4…1eccbacked No | 46c | 52.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…2b18backed Yes | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8f…f631backed Yes | 51c | 50.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88bf…591abacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59da…1880backed Yes | 59c | 50.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224e…61fbbacked Yes | 76c | 49.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 47c | 47.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1331…0ce8backed Yes | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Yes | 50c | 37.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…a1aabacked Yes | 42c | 34.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…f38abacked Yes | 60c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…f3d7backed No | 55c | 26.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d8…0806backed Yes | 75c | 26.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…1aabbacked No | 58c | 25.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89d6…c3c5backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…adf5backed No | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 77c | 20.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 68c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…28adbacked Yes | 77c | 14.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4415…5a2cbacked Yes | 75c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Denver Nuggets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will Atlanta Hawks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Golden State Warriors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Houston Rockets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Phoenix Suns advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Portland Trail Blazers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Toronto Raptors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.