NBA · resolved market

Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe923ab61db38aac0533d08f23330244ecb478b9efdc4e2373fafbbb49a2bbbc

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,288
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $16,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,288 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No	25c	2,681$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$676.8	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dd0…d6ffbacked Yes	75c	2,667$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$666.67	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed No	9c	1,576$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.72	894	44.4%397 W · 497 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x294d…b362backed No	18c	1,445$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.27	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x725b…8016backed No	15c	1,037$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.95	81	43.2%35 W · 46 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+42.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Yes	80c	1,000$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200	172	50%86 W · 86 L	+7.0wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked No	11c	831.02$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.33	171	62.6%107 W · 64 L	+10.1wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No	4c	361.55$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	908	63.9%580 W · 328 L	+80.6wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeaaf…20c0backed Yes	75c	132.85$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.35	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	60cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No	15c	130$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	633	53.1%336 W · 297 L	-2.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed No	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	58	56.9%33 W · 25 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa042…f005backed No	28c	71.43$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf83d…367dbacked Yes	79c	52.57$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	67	46.3%31 W · 36 L	-4.2wins	-0.06per pick	53cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes	74c	47.35$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.14	31	45.2%14 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eae…58f2backed Yes	76c	26$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.24	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes	78c	18.9$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.14	44	72.7%32 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	73cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event