NBA · resolved market
Will Portland Trail Blazers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a0a8a75741ff91fdba3d4c084f57e360a01e69c1b7fc61bc2412e4e0c1ca557
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac25…433fbacked Yes | 8c | 7,233$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.39 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacc9…c790backed Yes | 13c | 3,455$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.84 | 147 | 31.3%46 W · 101 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…93ffbacked Yes | 10c | 1,447$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 8c | 730$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.62 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e06…5f15backed Yes | 11c | 712.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Yes | 9c | 327.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…fb51backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca74…f7f8backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x337c…d57ebacked Yes | 10c | 151.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2efc…5686backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +8.7wins | +0.28per pick | 40cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…92c3backed Yes | 24c | 97.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Portland Trail Blazers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will Atlanta Hawks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Denver Nuggets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Golden State Warriors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Houston Rockets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Phoenix Suns advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Toronto Raptors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.