NBA · resolved market
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4757698868f8ae8f1e09fed17bef612cbcf301dcd57d0590442da9ad29d4bb1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacb2…b989backed No | 4c | 50,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…8016backed No | 9c | 18,980$1,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,659.63 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked No | 63c | 8,791$5,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,562.78 | 171 | 62.6%107 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed Yes | 17c | 7,423$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,141.19 | 241 | 51.9%125 W · 116 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 13c | 4,918$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.31 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Yes | 17c | 3,231$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,681.46 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 3c | 3,062$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.46 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 11c | 3,000$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.97 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 10c | 2,020$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,970$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0559…e817backed Yes | 50c | 1,680$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 7c | 1,527$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.48 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…4098backed No | 11c | 1,262$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…838bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,093$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +348.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…aab9backed Yes | 16c | 888.45$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.01 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde64…1e53backed No | 12c | 833.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked Yes | 34c | 644.03$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.06 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…0c6fbacked No | 9c | 598.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…c53dbacked Yes | 39c | 516.55$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 6c | 491.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…d538backed Yes | 27c | 486.39$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.04 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 66c | 457.01$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.05 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb30…6498backed Yes | 74c | 440.94$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.34 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb90f…ea7abacked Yes | 18c | 264.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.57 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ab…9b04backed Yes | 18c | 264.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…aeb7backed Yes | 39c | 245.19$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.84 | 89 | 41.6%37 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…b28bbacked No | 11c | 219.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1167…9f9fbacked Yes | 73c | 218.36$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 40c | 203.28$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d28…6d7abacked No | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…b95fbacked Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 117 | 66.7%78 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8079…b9cbbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked Yes | 55c | 191.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8f…f631backed Yes | 80c | 185.38$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83d…367dbacked Yes | 13c | 169.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.55 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…2c23backed Yes | 17c | 167.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.18 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fe…b350backed Yes | 58c | 151.07$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a7…30abbacked No | 13c | 145.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…a974backed No | 11c | 140.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 48cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…2d8dbacked Yes | 17c | 139.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +10.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4251…a957backed Yes | 79c | 139$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x921d…efb8backed No | 11c | 131.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0636…8e02backed Yes | 16c | 118.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +132.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…5f71backed Yes | 26c | 113.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3564…5cffbacked Yes | 17c | 111.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.63 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…b180backed Yes | 79c | 110.01$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…b241backed Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…7f73backed No | 28c | 99.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 75c | 98.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8250…ddd0backed Yes | 19c | 95.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Yes | 34c | 84.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d54…6022backed No | 26c | 80.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 36c | 80.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 241 | 59.8%144 W · 97 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…41d2backed Yes | 18c | 79.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 75c | 71.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf8…2488backed Yes | 17c | 71.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 62c | 69.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…05fcbacked Yes | 40c | 60.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9636…e617backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0309…d35ebacked No | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd990…749ebacked Yes | 79c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…2586backed Yes | 46c | 41.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb8…f5afbacked Yes | 32c | 35.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 66c | 32.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…3fcebacked Yes | 71c | 25.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adf…9ac5backed Yes | 58c | 25.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…5805backed Yes | 77c | 15.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b14…f38abacked Yes | 73c | 14.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will Atlanta Hawks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Denver Nuggets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Golden State Warriors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Houston Rockets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Phoenix Suns advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Portland Trail Blazers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Toronto Raptors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.