NBA · resolved market

Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34777b2d5d26d960ecc575b8f1c139a396a62a2c241be2724fa775e2e5aa81b8

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,132
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,632

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,132 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc44d…935cbacked Yes	7c	2,861$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,650.71	171	62.6%107 W · 64 L	+10.1wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes	73c	1,449$1,053 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$395.84	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No	17c	1,169$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.9	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81be…a441backed No	59c	983$584 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$584.11	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-4.5wins	-0.20per pick	43cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Yes	20c	818.55$163 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$655.28	766	53.5%410 W · 356 L	+65.5wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xadf5…c53dbacked Yes	78c	666.67$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146.67	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	48cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84b8…1193backed Yes	12c	500$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440	349	42.7%149 W · 200 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe332…7855backed Yes	12c	498.15$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$438.39	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+421.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7ab…9b04backed Yes	30c	332.39$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$232.39	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.14per pick	26cpaid	+77.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No	68c	315.58$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.59	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-25%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Yes	37c	259.88$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.11	894	44.4%397 W · 497 L	+8.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$176	42	54.8%23 W · 19 L	+3.1wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+33.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No	71c	199.99$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.79	633	53.1%336 W · 297 L	-2.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x914d…41cabacked Yes	13c	145.82$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.86	61	31.1%19 W · 42 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59da…1880backed No	77c	134.78$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.29	46	32.6%15 W · 31 L	-5.3wins	-0.12per pick	44cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6e1…06bbbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88	137	57.7%79 W · 58 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No	41c	90$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.78	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc4e…8199backed Yes	30c	82.76$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.76	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.18per pick	45cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes	51c	59.08$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.08	464	26.1%121 W · 343 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No	62c	58.04$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.82	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b2…5805backed Yes	32c	55.48$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.48	46	47.8%22 W · 24 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No	51c	49.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.49	394	35.3%139 W · 255 L	+12.1wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No	65c	37.48$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.54	210	56.7%119 W · 91 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7f15…52f1backed No	70c	26.67$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.67	53	50.9%27 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event