NBA · resolved market
Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5deea66d659c276923b7aae3d97460b6a725c033c51756ba95c90313bca27e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b90…2194backed Yes | 15c | 6,000$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909 | 197 | 47.7%94 W · 103 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44d…935cbacked Yes | 20c | 5,369$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064.39 | 171 | 62.6%107 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed Yes | 39c | 1,667$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.86 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | +14.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 72c | 1,296$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.2 | 894 | 44.4%397 W · 497 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 63c | 722.03$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.95 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc246…14c6backed Yes | 15c | 700$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81be…a441backed Yes | 64c | 663$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.99 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8072…0ef3backed No | 67c | 439.46$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.41 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes | 40c | 432.7$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.71 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65b…8452backed Yes | 46c | 414.22$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.58 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7218…8b34backed Yes | 24c | 410$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f15…52f1backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 29c | 374.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.7 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 70c | 300$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.13 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…fd3abacked No | 74c | 295.34$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.49 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a32…6e14backed No | 74c | 265.84$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 75c | 246.61$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 633 | 53.1%336 W · 297 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf49c…9786backed Yes | 26c | 240.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d8…ac5ebacked Yes | 70c | 212.83$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 258 | 45%116 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…b241backed Yes | 58c | 178.71$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.79 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Yes | 20c | 143.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 241 | 59.8%144 W · 97 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaf…20c0backed No | 77c | 129.9$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8f…f631backed Yes | 63c | 122.41$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.33 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +24.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11f…48a6backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc180…fc38backed Yes | 71c | 84.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 26c | 78.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…c84dbacked Yes | 17c | 71.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…392bbacked Yes | 71c | 70.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 33c | 64.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 182 | 46.7%85 W · 97 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…ec12backed Yes | 46c | 41.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…f601backed No | 43c | 30.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5e…abf7backed Yes | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 44cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x979c…8e01backed Yes | 71c | 21.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 76c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4af0…7696backed No | 74c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 79c | 18.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…6d94backed Yes | 56c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a68…33bfbacked No | 77c | 18.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will Atlanta Hawks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Denver Nuggets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Golden State Warriors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Houston Rockets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Phoenix Suns advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Portland Trail Blazers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Toronto Raptors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.