NBA · resolved market

Will Toronto Raptors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd196eafe89bc2f7eedaf634aaf736663241d2bce8e4c00e99e789215a8196ad0

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $15,800
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $15,069

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,800 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Yes	6c	10,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	113	33.6%38 W · 75 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Yes	19c	1,296$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.22	633	53.1%336 W · 297 L	-2.7wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacb6…e3bbbacked No	75c	621.28$465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.68	62	66.1%41 W · 21 L	+9.0wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xecd9…ebc3backed Yes	28c	596.69$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.45	50	40%20 W · 30 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked No	80c	579.41$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.38	171	62.6%107 W · 64 L	+10.1wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a8b…c9f8backed Yes	20c	476$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.2	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Yes	25c	416.62$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.5	360	23.1%83 W · 277 L	-15.6wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7218…8b34backed Yes	28c	400$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.6	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-4.8wins	-0.15per pick	56cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Yes	25c	348.41$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.43	1,271	38.3%487 W · 784 L	-13.4wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaaf…20c0backed No	75c	132.71$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.21	31	51.6%16 W · 15 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	60cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b2d…b2fcbacked Yes	9c	110.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Yes	35c	65.65$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.23	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d970backed No	74c	40.38$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.38	108	43.5%47 W · 61 L	-7.0wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2941…7850backed No	75c	30.95$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.82	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed No	74c	27.08$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.08	83	54.2%45 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Toronto Raptors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event