NBA · resolved market
Will Houston Rockets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4238579f20c63909da5ee256cfa62fa73d8ea029a0442889308814f97132e69a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,591
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,591 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 68c | 25,715$17,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,248.86 | 227 | 50.2%114 W · 113 L | +24.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b7…5ee3backed Yes | 23c | 25,036$5,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,810.08 | 113 | 33.6%38 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…433fbacked Yes | 43c | 10,100$4,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,342 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed No | 76c | 3,011$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.42 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked No | 19c | 1,521$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.05 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 35c | 1,211$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.92 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x725b…8016backed No | 67c | 1,200$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.32 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…c161backed No | 14c | 931.12$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.02 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 628$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 96 | 9.4%9 W · 87 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 17c | 570.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe26c…1903backed No | 78c | 540.21$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 9c | 530.81$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2c…d3c2backed Yes | 29c | 505.4$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed No | 71c | 503$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.87 | 199 | 37.2%74 W · 125 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 10c | 491.36$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 228 | 36.4%83 W · 145 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 13c | 474.02$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.07 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x985a…7b76backed Yes | 9c | 456.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked No | 55c | 370.29$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.44 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +256.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Yes | 5c | 344.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91c8…3ba8backed Yes | 28c | 341.9$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d3…c2f0backed Yes | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 5c | 288$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86a1…2cb8backed No | 17c | 280.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.06 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e89…2fc6backed No | 17c | 279.47$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.96 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf16…65a6backed Yes | 73c | 270.77$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.72 | 257 | 53.7%138 W · 119 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed No | 15c | 270.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 11c | 140.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 141 | 29.1%41 W · 100 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…1aabbacked Yes | 15c | 127.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 10c | 110.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81be…a441backed Yes | 25c | 109$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 74c | 100.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f67…5bbabacked No | 80c | 98.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…b241backed Yes | 20c | 87.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 63c | 70.49$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 387 | 51.2%198 W · 189 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x022c…926abacked Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 78c | 47.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 950 | 49.4%469 W · 481 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…a397backed No | 56c | 33.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…534fbacked No | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Houston Rockets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?this page
- Will Atlanta Hawks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Boston Celtics advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Cleveland Cavaliers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Denver Nuggets advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Detroit Pistons advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Golden State Warriors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will New York Knicks advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Philadelphia 76ers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Phoenix Suns advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will Portland Trail Blazers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
- Will San Antonio Spurs advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?Yes won
- Will Toronto Raptors advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NBA Playoffs?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.