TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x979c…8e01

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
94
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT3070%21 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+70.4%+$14.07
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$7.06
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.63
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$8.93
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+47.9%+$9.59
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.69
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$8.51
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$7.09
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.47
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+40.3%+$14.1
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+45.9%+$32.16
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$6.84
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+74.1%+$29.64
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$9.74
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.17
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.17
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$42.57
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+103.8%+$57.1
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.17
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+48.3%+$31.5
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 17 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick67cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-42.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+171.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+52%+$7.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2backed Kiwoom DRX Challengers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitalsbacked Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arvell Reese be the second pick in the 2026 NFL draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.