AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x195b94beadce4077ba1825af16de7aa38adc75bd270bdd1616f1d63448411f07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $176,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 377 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 14,966$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 19c | 13,981$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.09 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 12,400$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2764…a652backed Yes | 67c | 5,650$3,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,808.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 33c | 5,003$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.4 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked Yes | 8c | 4,320$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…3c2bbacked Yes | 7c | 3,894$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 3,588$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.81 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f4…018bbacked Yes | 64c | 3,174$2,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,989$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.22 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fa…78b8backed Yes | 72c | 2,912$2,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,081.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 71c | 2,821$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 9c | 2,500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5534…eb60backed Yes | 68c | 2,382$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,630 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes | 36c | 2,152$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7837…7b4abacked Yes | 13c | 2,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 9c | 1,945$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.7 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ad…f44bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,900$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed Yes | 46c | 1,761$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.06 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…a780backed Yes | 67c | 1,679$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 75c | 1,677$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.57 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 1,567$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.89 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 4c | 1,527$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c21…adafbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 55c | 1,440$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.95 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,401$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742.53 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c5…af5dbacked No | 30c | 1,397$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 46c | 1,347$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.62 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6307…0447backed Yes | 76c | 1,332$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 42cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 51c | 1,289$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.04 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 14c | 1,209$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.65 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b9…cedcbacked Yes | 68c | 1,177$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…d8f1backed Yes | 77c | 1,150$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.89 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 61c | 1,142$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.42 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…8b51backed Yes | 10c | 1,100$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 30c | 1,072$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.12 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 54c | 1,069$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.74 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked No | 54c | 1,049$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.54 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d60…1e0ebacked Yes | 55c | 1,002$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Yes | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…178fbacked No | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 25c | 988$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…e4c8backed No | 75c | 988$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 39c | 957.53$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.32 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…458fbacked Yes | 74c | 939.33$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 53c | 916$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.48 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b79…360fbacked Yes | 68c | 895$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed No | 32c | 894$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.92 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 54c | 892$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.32 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 54c | 869$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.74 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d23…68fbbacked Yes | 56c | 850$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 845.06$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.34 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6cdbbacked Yes | 60c | 837.77$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8d…53d2backed Yes | 48c | 837.13$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 12c | 818.45$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…cdfbbacked Yes | 77c | 816.08$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 5c | 810.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked No | 47c | 803$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.59 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5c…8e24backed Yes | 25c | 801.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…039abacked Yes | 65c | 773.14$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…99aebacked No | 47c | 771$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 31c | 745.12$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.7 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…c7b9backed No | 47c | 743$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 641.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfb…dd3abacked Yes | 46c | 629.99$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…4e09backed Yes | 24c | 624.72$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…c5a4backed Yes | 64c | 600$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 4c | 599.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 7c | 599.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…ae4abacked Yes | 41c | 597.15$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…588ebacked Yes | 46c | 568$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.28 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…19bbbacked Yes | 77c | 546.59$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3506…4815backed Yes | 46c | 501$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +37%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 74c | 500$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.95 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde3b…6e42backed Yes | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7535…33f5backed Yes | 74c | 499.58$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 9c | 495.69$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 51c | 487.44$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.68 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…c74abacked Yes | 66c | 485.43$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…4e4bbacked Yes | 77c | 483.89$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…b825backed Yes | 70c | 477.93$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed No | 24c | 460$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…7ffebacked Yes | 70c | 450$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 24c | 445$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 66c | 438.57$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbe…5323backed Yes | 68c | 438.22$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadcd…29e9backed Yes | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 24c | 427$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.52 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 71c | 425.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfae8…1912backed Yes | 72c | 421.26$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce1…6757backed Yes | 69c | 421.12$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a87…89eabacked Yes | 77c | 406.94$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…98c7backed Yes | 74c | 404.05$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 35c | 397.47$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.35 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6bbebacked Yes | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b68…02fdbacked Yes | 75c | 379.26$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc68b…346dbacked Yes | 68c | 366.17$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26e6…7eafbacked Yes | 69c | 356.89$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ed…ed7cbacked Yes | 69c | 347.98$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…dee9backed Yes | 76c | 338.85$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.53 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.