AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f4804bf7b7cc0005e89b12a1326b721c334a5ceb0b8b8d5628fd52d401295c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $831,252
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $755,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $831,252 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 3c | 16,692$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.51 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 15,548$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 14,225$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 11,480$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.09 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 9,401$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.02 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcc…b202backed Yes | 1c | 7,125$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1654…a71ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,399$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…7565backed Yes | 2c | 6,210$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 3c | 5,381$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.15 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7548…b919backed Yes | 8c | 4,190$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…c0dabacked Yes | 8c | 3,970$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…1bc2backed Yes | 7c | 3,921$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4858…e007backed Yes | 7c | 3,841$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27af…6144backed Yes | 8c | 3,638$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3a…e701backed Yes | 8c | 3,628$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…52b0backed Yes | 8c | 3,479$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d32…6ea2backed Yes | 8c | 3,367$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0c…dcf1backed Yes | 6c | 3,327$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…01a9backed Yes | 8c | 3,288$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…e366backed Yes | 7c | 3,282$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03db…812abacked Yes | 6c | 3,226$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbf…bd68backed Yes | 6c | 3,209$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe012…68ebbacked Yes | 6c | 3,161$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…0ed2backed Yes | 7c | 3,122$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbe…e297backed Yes | 7c | 3,046$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4191…57e1backed Yes | 7c | 3,019$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…bc8abacked Yes | 8c | 2,877$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b8…d43abacked Yes | 8c | 2,857$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3d…977cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,824$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8273…fcd3backed Yes | 5c | 2,654$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…29fcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,651$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…0271backed Yes | 7c | 2,642$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6050…4c2abacked Yes | 6c | 2,610$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015e…3b6cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,557$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe4…cd32backed Yes | 8c | 2,413$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,396$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.11 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3420…398fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,378$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…4d30backed Yes | 8c | 2,356$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9327…294cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,350$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda15…a083backed Yes | 7c | 2,304$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb9…8fdcbacked Yes | 9c | 2,296$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…b9c4backed Yes | 6c | 2,295$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…18b1backed Yes | 4c | 2,196$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe01d…5b97backed Yes | 6c | 2,188$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…626bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,171$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x837b…ddd9backed Yes | 8c | 2,154$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x288c…3b06backed Yes | 7c | 2,150$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fa…89ffbacked Yes | 6c | 2,081$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710a…77bebacked Yes | 8c | 2,066$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8e…02b7backed Yes | 3c | 2,056$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a89…911bbacked Yes | 7c | 2,025$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702c…bd94backed Yes | 8c | 2,013$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…53efbacked Yes | 1c | 2,005$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d9…2999backed Yes | 4c | 1,980$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe818…ae1bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,973$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa07…7e09backed Yes | 4c | 1,941$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292c…43bfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,930$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47f…7bb4backed Yes | 3c | 1,881$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe63c…dd64backed Yes | 4c | 1,837$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef2…e18bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,805$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a9…ada9backed Yes | 7c | 1,795$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669f…4f78backed Yes | 7c | 1,790$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x178f…771bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,787$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea36…bfe4backed Yes | 7c | 1,768$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1478…fc4bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,753$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43a7…d858backed Yes | 5c | 1,745$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…7be9backed Yes | 7c | 1,702$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,693$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked Yes | 1c | 1,687$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ce…672cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,677$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1549…5874backed Yes | 5c | 1,670$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5743…adf3backed Yes | 4c | 1,661$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,657$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…2b73backed Yes | 9c | 1,620$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…27b7backed Yes | 7c | 1,613$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…0519backed Yes | 4c | 1,605$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98e…9600backed Yes | 1c | 1,571$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,562$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda80…fdb4backed Yes | 9c | 1,550$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,510$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…b73cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,485$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f5…13fcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,477$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5394…3b7fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,463$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1f…b4d9backed Yes | 8c | 1,439$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897c…1cb4backed Yes | 6c | 1,431$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d89…811bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,426$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f1…cd88backed Yes | 7c | 1,421$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b83…8ec0backed Yes | 5c | 1,402$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…5c1bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,390$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8de…e902backed Yes | 5c | 1,386$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…528cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,383$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde6…0f4dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,340$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a9…c0fcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,317$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x082e…0110backed Yes | 5c | 1,314$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…5760backed Yes | 8c | 1,313$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,303$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 42 | 0%0 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4afebacked Yes | 6c | 1,301$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea73…46cbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,294$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74b…8039backed Yes | 6c | 1,288$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe335…e799backed Yes | 3c | 1,275$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.