TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$831,252
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$755,439

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $831,252 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 235 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4181…de86backed Yes3c16,692$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.518815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c15,548$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.972003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c14,225$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.672920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes5c11,480$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.0910126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c9,401$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.022560%0 W · 256 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdcc…b202backed Yes1c7,125$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1654…a71ebacked Yes1c6,399$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1430…7565backed Yes2c6,210$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes3c5,381$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.155016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7548…b919backed Yes8c4,190$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a80…c0dabacked Yes8c3,970$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.5920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b4…1bc2backed Yes7c3,921$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4858…e007backed Yes7c3,841$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27af…6144backed Yes8c3,638$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d3a…e701backed Yes8c3,628$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb3e8…52b0backed Yes8c3,479$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d32…6ea2backed Yes8c3,367$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c0c…dcf1backed Yes6c3,327$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf7f6…01a9backed Yes8c3,288$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.1940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2cd…e366backed Yes7c3,282$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03db…812abacked Yes6c3,226$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdbf…bd68backed Yes6c3,209$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe012…68ebbacked Yes6c3,161$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00e1…0ed2backed Yes7c3,122$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbe…e297backed Yes7c3,046$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4191…57e1backed Yes7c3,019$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d53…bc8abacked Yes8c2,877$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9b8…d43abacked Yes8c2,857$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb3d…977cbacked Yes7c2,824$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8273…fcd3backed Yes5c2,654$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c59…29fcbacked Yes8c2,651$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e3…0271backed Yes7c2,642$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6050…4c2abacked Yes6c2,610$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x015e…3b6cbacked Yes4c2,557$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe4…cd32backed Yes8c2,413$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes5c2,396$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.115111.8%6 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-66.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3420…398fbacked Yes7c2,378$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc934…4d30backed Yes8c2,356$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9327…294cbacked Yes3c2,350$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda15…a083backed Yes7c2,304$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb9…8fdcbacked Yes9c2,296$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbde…b9c4backed Yes6c2,295$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7667…18b1backed Yes4c2,196$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe01d…5b97backed Yes6c2,188$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7bd…626bbacked Yes1c2,171$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-74.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x837b…ddd9backed Yes8c2,154$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x288c…3b06backed Yes7c2,150$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96fa…89ffbacked Yes6c2,081$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710a…77bebacked Yes8c2,066$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b8e…02b7backed Yes3c2,056$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a89…911bbacked Yes7c2,025$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x702c…bd94backed Yes8c2,013$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd2d…53efbacked Yes1c2,005$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid-38.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6d9…2999backed Yes4c1,980$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe818…ae1bbacked Yes7c1,973$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa07…7e09backed Yes4c1,941$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x292c…43bfbacked Yes3c1,930$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb47f…7bb4backed Yes3c1,881$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe63c…dd64backed Yes4c1,837$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbef2…e18bbacked Yes7c1,805$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a9…ada9backed Yes7c1,795$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x669f…4f78backed Yes7c1,790$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x178f…771bbacked Yes8c1,787$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea36…bfe4backed Yes7c1,768$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1478…fc4bbacked Yes6c1,753$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43a7…d858backed Yes5c1,745$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa384…7be9backed Yes7c1,702$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,693$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.841,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked Yes1c1,687$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ce…672cbacked Yes7c1,677$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1549…5874backed Yes5c1,670$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5743…adf3backed Yes4c1,661$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c1,657$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.342522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcac6…2b73backed Yes9c1,620$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.7830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe17…27b7backed Yes7c1,613$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.3630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda7b…0519backed Yes4c1,605$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc98e…9600backed Yes1c1,571$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes1c1,562$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.62634.8%3 W · 60 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-90.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda80…fdb4backed Yes9c1,550$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c1,510$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.351754%7 W · 168 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…b73cbacked Yes7c1,485$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f5…13fcbacked Yes6c1,477$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5394…3b7fbacked Yes6c1,463$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc1f…b4d9backed Yes8c1,439$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x897c…1cb4backed Yes6c1,431$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d89…811bbacked Yes5c1,426$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34f1…cd88backed Yes7c1,421$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b83…8ec0backed Yes5c1,402$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7234…5c1bbacked Yes3c1,390$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8de…e902backed Yes5c1,386$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe126…528cbacked Yes3c1,383$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcde6…0f4dbacked Yes4c1,340$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a9…c0fcbacked Yes8c1,317$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x082e…0110backed Yes5c1,314$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc092…5760backed Yes8c1,313$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes1c1,303$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.49420%0 W · 42 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f36…4afebacked Yes6c1,301$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea73…46cbbacked Yes8c1,294$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd74b…8039backed Yes6c1,288$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe335…e799backed Yes3c1,275$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.