AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55d89b6dc1f66dde272f37704a183229e9e63f00cfb3075797f060f6fba711af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $282,309
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $282,309 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 18,031$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.06 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 15,202$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 0c | 9,910$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 3c | 3,581$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…b4c7backed Yes | 5c | 3,555$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5a…500bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,006$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f1…8232backed Yes | 0c | 2,476$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd875…46debacked Yes | 5c | 2,445$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf073…8a82backed Yes | 4c | 2,427$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5c…0d98backed Yes | 2c | 2,420$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe51…5552backed Yes | 0c | 2,329$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd78…4d1fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,121$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…ed0cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,023$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,910$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29fe…218fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,790$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…2309backed Yes | 1c | 1,788$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29e4…c46ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,770$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ee…f400backed Yes | 4c | 1,745$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…3618backed Yes | 4c | 1,743$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0282…9bd2backed Yes | 6c | 1,734$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd183…fc51backed Yes | 1c | 1,713$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc06…c543backed Yes | 5c | 1,645$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbe…28f4backed Yes | 6c | 1,529$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…6b03backed Yes | 2c | 1,455$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b74…fda9backed Yes | 4c | 1,443$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x901a…5792backed Yes | 2c | 1,437$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d94…57fbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,400$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4140…5099backed Yes | 2c | 1,383$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…c462backed Yes | 2c | 1,378$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd5…13b9backed Yes | 5c | 1,330$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb0…94c6backed Yes | 5c | 1,308$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00f…40c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,301$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,249$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0955…cf38backed Yes | 2c | 1,152$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d1…e610backed Yes | 2c | 1,110$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6eb…15c3backed Yes | 5c | 1,104$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…1aecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,087$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c7…e934backed Yes | 5c | 1,073$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…c691backed Yes | 1c | 1,029$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbabb…4301backed Yes | 5c | 996$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d53…bc8abacked Yes | 2c | 888$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…f81abacked Yes | 2c | 825$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7c…1016backed Yes | 2c | 806$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348e…5196backed Yes | 2c | 794$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 648.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8e…02b7backed Yes | 6c | 558$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…f717backed Yes | 6c | 494$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d0…2fa4backed Yes | 6c | 472$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbd…c9f2backed Yes | 6c | 463$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a24…6d37backed Yes | 6c | 443$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…ed88backed Yes | 5c | 442$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…ec66backed Yes | 5c | 397$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…5b28backed Yes | 5c | 312$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc32f…f96cbacked Yes | 5c | 278$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes won
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.