AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cc7c10edcc47725f108a64bd384134f44c7dad983199939a1685dfd67019259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $275,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $264,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $275,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 328 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1327…0119backed No | 7c | 43,934$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,999.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes | 46c | 15,467$7,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,420.49 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 1c | 13,300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 72c | 12,546$9,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,472.21 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked No | 17c | 7,098$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.21 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 13c | 4,216$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.78 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…7001backed Yes | 30c | 3,913$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,755.52 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 24c | 3,567$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,704.28 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 3,288$1,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.1 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c8…e7a8backed Yes | 35c | 3,172$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,072.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 3,150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.51 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…5dcdbacked Yes | 77c | 2,616$2,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.24 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,565$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…2800backed Yes | 24c | 2,540$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,926.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce5…40f6backed Yes | 54c | 2,300$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 40c | 2,196$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.34 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…f11abacked Yes | 76c | 2,108$1,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…9eb6backed Yes | 60c | 2,063$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 50c | 2,023$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…9810backed Yes | 75c | 1,969$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…baa2backed Yes | 52c | 1,927$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x962d…dc4cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,804$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0019…6629backed Yes | 79c | 1,789$1,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a87…89eabacked Yes | 75c | 1,729$1,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x779d…169fbacked Yes | 64c | 1,708$1,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.08 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,632$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.84 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 79c | 1,577$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.55 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4092…f145backed Yes | 36c | 1,393$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.82 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7362…a780backed Yes | 55c | 1,314$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…9ab9backed Yes | 79c | 1,271$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…c246backed Yes | 28c | 1,248$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,237$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 48c | 1,170$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.27 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a66…a177backed No | 1c | 1,135$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 22c | 1,122$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.85 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…ca94backed Yes | 42c | 1,109$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2b8ebacked Yes | 77c | 1,109$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c4…2781backed Yes | 51c | 1,108$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +178.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…039abacked Yes | 43c | 1,075$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48c…a8b4backed Yes | 51c | 1,050$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…ae4abacked Yes | 73c | 1,009$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.38 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35b2…f329backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 21c | 999.96$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.97 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 12c | 994.67$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5f…b5bdbacked Yes | 51c | 987.96$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…7e67backed No | 2c | 975$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8516…d656backed Yes | 80c | 951.1$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 8c | 939.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d38…e898backed Yes | 22c | 903$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.34 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +123%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed No | 78c | 903$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.34 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 50c | 806$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…52a5backed Yes | 78c | 801.08$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.27 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd4…a23fbacked No | 74c | 800$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…3c2bbacked No | 5c | 779.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes | 50c | 775$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 44c | 754.65$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.17 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 733.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed Yes | 50c | 708$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffd…b072backed Yes | 22c | 642$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01dd…fb46backed No | 78c | 642$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9677…78e9backed Yes | 70c | 625.36$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…17adbacked No | 3c | 615.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…8cf6backed Yes | 31c | 608.5$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +221%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x311b…b455backed Yes | 58c | 601.85$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…c427backed No | 77c | 599.99$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 44c | 596.92$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.99 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 555.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.08 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 555.27$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.97 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 3c | 553.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 525.17$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.18 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe195…67fabacked No | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…9c2dbacked Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe825…1eb4backed Yes | 36c | 499.83$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2225…d468backed Yes | 32c | 445$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7340…4e09backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 6c | 422.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…413bbacked Yes | 78c | 408.18$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07e…48b1backed Yes | 54c | 405$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54c5…0ec5backed No | 3c | 403.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…84bfbacked Yes | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59a…91f1backed Yes | 50c | 372.27$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe430…9660backed No | 27c | 367.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 37c | 349.95$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.09 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96dc…8073backed Yes | 75c | 332.21$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8a…bb0dbacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…d0a0backed Yes | 57c | 298.5$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.09 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…a8febacked No | 70c | 286.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f65…78fabacked Yes | 22c | 284.66$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +122.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1272…cf40backed Yes | 77c | 280.36$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 35c | 280.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a1…689cbacked Yes | 51c | 272.83$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5be…4de8backed Yes | 51c | 270$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23f7…2912backed No | 49c | 268$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 50c | 266$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 6c | 265.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0831…6994backed Yes | 80c | 255.93$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.