Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x183ad9d8cab3fc1397d2965750ec9bb83a19a972043ac041d6d0c56c4b664d22

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $271,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $191,623

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,052 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	4c	11,137$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.79	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	7,975$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.82	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	28c	7,845$2,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,174.5	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	15c	6,734$998 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$997.74	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,387$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.78	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	13c	5,000$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$641	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	4,872$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.45	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	23c	4,725$1,106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,106.33	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	7c	3,350$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.53	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	67c	3,152$2,105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,047.42	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	1c	3,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	1c	2,950$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	3c	2,904$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.99	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	7c	2,874$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.11	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	33c	2,725$906 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$905.62	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No	78c	2,656$2,075 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$581.71	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	27c	2,613$718 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.24	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	24c	2,600$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$613.62	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	2,466$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.62	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	14c	2,297$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.73	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	67c	2,112$1,416 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$695.94	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1371…1097backed Yes	9c	1,961$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.74	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.0wins	+0.19per pick	21cpaid	+56.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No	58c	1,930$1,119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$810.9	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f57…27e4backed Yes	37c	1,929$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$720.08	71	21.1%15 W · 56 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No	69c	1,842$1,265 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$576.72	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	23c	1,830$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.44	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	21c	1,820$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.35	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	30c	1,741$531 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.56	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	39c	1,736$674 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.34	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	19c	1,732$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.57	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	1,715$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.64	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	19c	1,644$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.01	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes	36c	1,622$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$589.19	83	24.1%20 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes	39c	1,616$628 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$628.09	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	22c	1,614$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.91	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	34c	1,600$552 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$551.75	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No	71c	1,542$1,089 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$453.71	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3fc…a1d9backed Yes	1c	1,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	35	0%0 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	6c	1,475$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43eb…e6c0backed Yes	34c	1,414$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483.29	82	24.4%20 W · 62 L	-6.6wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No	77c	1,400$1,081 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.25	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	8c	1,230$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.31	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes	29c	1,183$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.89	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4377…1764backed Yes	28c	1,124$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.1	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952b…c92fbacked No	76c	1,081$822 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.49	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	22c	1,057$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.77	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	16c	992.79$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	9c	991.54$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.55	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No	75c	984.64$735 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.75	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d73…75a0backed Yes	39c	886.47$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.11	65	29.2%19 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	11c	881.85$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.22	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked Yes	34c	852.38$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.18	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	13c	844.08$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.04	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	27c	795.53$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$216.15	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	16c	728.71$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	12c	726.94$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.56	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	78c	681$528 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.56	197	56.9%112 W · 85 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd46…4c7dbacked Yes	16c	655$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.82	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	2c	648.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	7c	647.19$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.2	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a46…de6dbacked Yes	3c	632.51$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.21	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+55.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes	33c	600.27$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.67	207	23.7%49 W · 158 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	26c	600$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.2	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xccd7…1a8dbacked Yes	43c	587.92$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-34%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	35c	565.92$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.32	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	11c	557.14$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.31	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	528.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.97	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	17c	521.48$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.82	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	19c	517.02$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.6	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No	68c	500.7$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.13	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180f…0c07backed No	61c	500$302 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.5	76	26.3%20 W · 56 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	16c	460$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.23	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	11c	443.53$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	35c	437.13$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.74	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	39c	432.51$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	19c	400$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.8	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd969…b9b9backed Yes	16c	400$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.7	127	20.5%26 W · 101 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes	37c	399.99$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.9	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc831…0111backed Yes	3c	397$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes	26c	394.66$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.42	42	45.2%19 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed No	70c	366.25$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.75	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes	40c	363.37$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.16	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-4.7wins	-0.10per pick	30cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes	18c	360$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.11	105	47.6%50 W · 55 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	29c	350.11$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.69	169	45%76 W · 93 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	65c	342.8$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$119.04	189	49.2%93 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	20c	335.19$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.99	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	13c	332.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.67	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes	6c	317.06$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	111	14.4%16 W · 95 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9068…e0d2backed Yes	40c	310.74$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.93	160	24.4%39 W · 121 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes	19c	310$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.3	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-83%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	65c	309.75$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.75	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes	33c	307.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	19c	295.19$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.21	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	15c	294.41$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.19	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x00f1…b427backed Yes	31c	291.23$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.2	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Yes	18c	285.01$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	159	32.7%52 W · 107 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	25c	282.02$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.69	276	47.8%132 W · 144 L	+10.1wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No	69c	273.11$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.85	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	37c	271.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event