Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc46418ddf4f3c54822ee0d23f1328da52266f4bc3f6b30289259b368545ffdb

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $116,009
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $35,529

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,009 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	17,893$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.74	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	0c	13,194$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.89	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb36…a357backed Yes	1c	13,022$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	7,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	3c	4,551$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.07	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	0c	3,025$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.29	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	2,083$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	2,000$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.4	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	1,110$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	4c	1,008$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.53	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	4c	1,004$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.02	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a03…3db7backed Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	-13%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	4c	895.18$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.82	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3473…e864backed Yes	1c	716.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	+134.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	3c	600$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	5c	361.1$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event