Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf79784d309bd4d2c7da0277cf034e40a470a927a2b6a91a1893dbe4ca799462

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $472,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $409,066

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $472,284 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 316 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x215a…254cbacked No	1c	15,000$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.76	270	24.4%66 W · 204 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	42c	9,384$3,945 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,439.21	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	3c	9,296$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,040.77	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed No	14c	8,968$1,245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,244.77	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	53c	8,145$4,323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,822.54	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	6,398$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,241.48	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	53c	5,487$2,913 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,573.22	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes	31c	5,469$1,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,768.54	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	0c	5,251$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes	40c	5,155$2,072 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,082.77	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	10c	5,078$510 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,567.89	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	62c	4,791$2,993 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,993.31	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	4,549$297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,251.68	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed Yes	49c	4,400$2,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,240.35	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	19c	4,369$816 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,552.36	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	4,116$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,871.91	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes	58c	3,612$2,106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,506.42	73	37%27 W · 46 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	22c	3,591$797 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,794.67	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	45c	3,207$1,450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,756.51	119	26.9%32 W · 87 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	3c	3,139$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,051.06	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	2c	3,114$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,052.83	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	11c	3,011$318 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,692.88	154	7.8%12 W · 142 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,910	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	36c	2,997$1,083 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,913.64	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	64c	2,770$1,781 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$989.24	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	8c	2,482$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,282.8	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	72c	2,468$1,774 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,774.02	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	2c	2,451$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,401.55	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	6c	2,324$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,193.88	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No	1c	2,151$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.02	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked No	6c	2,150$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.68	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,108$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,053.36	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	50c	2,091$1,035 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,055.63	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	36c	2,048$731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$730.78	197	56.9%112 W · 85 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No	72c	1,962$1,407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,406.9	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	4c	1,955$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,881.07	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	74c	1,925$1,417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$508.27	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	14c	1,849$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,582.21	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	77c	1,766$1,364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,363.55	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	27c	1,723$464 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,259.44	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3335…fbd6backed No	30c	1,679$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.7	85	32.9%28 W · 57 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed No	5c	1,573$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.83	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	23c	1,500$343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,157.37	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	35c	1,471$518 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$953.86	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	40c	1,468$590 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$878.05	275	47.6%131 W · 144 L	+9.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	26c	1,409$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,048.9	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes	6c	1,397$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,317.33	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+4.1wins	+0.04per pick	17cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed No	31c	1,391$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.19	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No	47c	1,360$643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$643.37	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	74c	1,350$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	28c	1,338$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$966.51	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	5c	1,280$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,218.05	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	1,197$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,156.52	216	6%13 W · 203 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes	17c	1,191$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$991.05	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes	70c	1,185$824 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$360.85	167	41.3%69 W · 98 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x288d…00eabacked Yes	22c	1,165$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$910.4	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	1,100$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,077.4	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes	34c	1,089$369 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$720.51	83	24.1%20 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	10c	1,076$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$970.94	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed No	6c	1,075$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.34	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d73…75a0backed Yes	59c	1,071$631 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.96	65	29.2%19 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	24c	1,071$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$814.99	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No	14c	1,066$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.85	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	25c	1,059$267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$791.88	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	1,034$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$991.05	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	22c	1,031$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$808.25	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	20c	1,027$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$820.57	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	10c	1,000$101 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$899.02	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed No	8c	999.96$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa43e…ec90backed No	16c	979.99$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.43	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1626…9992backed Yes	2c	979.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$959.3	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	51c	978.07$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.96	189	49.2%93 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed No	72c	972.43$703 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$703.16	79	20.3%16 W · 63 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No	34c	922$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.06	110	50%55 W · 55 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	5c	902.22$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$856.29	161	22.4%36 W · 125 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	35c	891$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.42	308	54.9%169 W · 139 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	24c	870.27$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$660.27	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	32c	855.41$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$579.98	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	48c	854.6$410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$444.32	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	16c	854.57$135 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$719.56	378	30.7%116 W · 262 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	25c	825.3$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$615.3	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	3c	800$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$775.5	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	11c	800$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$712	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No	35c	785.2$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.23	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	9c	781.24$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$710.93	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x299b…8994backed Yes	30c	739.5$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.5	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No	11c	726.98$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.56	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes	3c	710$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$687.28	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	12c	647.83$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572.24	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	17c	626$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$519.58	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86d5…d80abacked Yes	28c	613.99$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$444.53	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	19cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes	27c	600.44$161 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.44	207	23.7%49 W · 158 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e92…c3d0backed Yes	19c	600$114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$486	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	20c	600$118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$482.4	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked No	21c	598.36$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	13c	585.86$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$508.41	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes	36c	555.18$202 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$353.32	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No	68c	552.11$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.31	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed No	25c	550.18$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.55	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	4c	541.61$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$522.39	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event