TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$194,178
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$132,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,178 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c12,275$18 inLost-$18.294568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe583…2d98backed Yes0c10,407$12 inLost-$12.4611421.1%24 W · 90 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost-$405718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes0c8,745$23 inLost-$23.492009%18 W · 182 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+173%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes0c5,472$14 inLost-$13.92674.5%3 W · 64 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-77.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes0c5,331$18 inLost-$18.262785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes0c5,070$15 inLost-$14.671863.8%7 W · 179 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes1c5,020$28 inLost-$28.3988610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c5,012$61 inLost-$60.961,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c3,481$28 inLost-$28.452,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes1c2,523$19 inLost-$18.86502%1 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+62.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes2c1,267$23 inLost-$22.82176%13 W · 204 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes1c1,175$13 inLost-$13.123134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb36…a357backed Yes1c886.72$10 inLost-$10137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-68.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e92…c3d0backed Yes10c599.98$60 inLost-$60714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes2c500$10 inLost-$101008%8 W · 92 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes6c480$29 inLost-$28.83912.8%5 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes4c399.96$17 inLost-$16.7573215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes7c228.61$16 inLost-$16819.9%8 W · 73 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes13c134.1$17 inLost-$17.51,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1028034.3%96 W · 184 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.