Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x601882d121c7ae4794f7777f958eb11974533fb9e053cf6fc926adc42afe76a4

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $338,993
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $218,516

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,993 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	11,076$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.25	569	5.4%31 W · 538 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	8,953$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.18	463	8.2%38 W · 425 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	7,177$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.96	191	4.2%8 W · 183 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+221%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	7,167$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.04	281	5%14 W · 267 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	1c	7,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+354.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	6,550$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	68	4.4%3 W · 65 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	2c	6,369$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.97	230	24.8%57 W · 173 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	6,089$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.91	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,663$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.64	2,181	3.9%85 W · 2,096 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	5,485$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	201	9%18 W · 183 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+171.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	4c	5,291$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.97	259	13.5%35 W · 224 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	5,047$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.29	1,209	8.7%105 W · 1,104 L	+31.6wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	582	8.1%47 W · 535 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	4,900$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.44	187	3.7%7 W · 180 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	4,836$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.11	1,799	7.4%133 W · 1,666 L	-24.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	2c	4,786$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.51	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	4,750$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.91	2,576	13.2%339 W · 2,237 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	4,552$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.74	1,083	8.2%89 W · 994 L	+28.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	2c	4,531$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.54	177	20.3%36 W · 141 L	+7.3wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	4,500$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	525	9.9%52 W · 473 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+63.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	2c	4,408$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.22	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	4,116$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	391	4.6%18 W · 373 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes	0c	3,464$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	3,290$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.27	899	10.2%92 W · 807 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	2c	3,131$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	3,106$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.15	222	5.9%13 W · 209 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	2,982$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.32	426	10.6%45 W · 381 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	2,810$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.27	774	21.7%168 W · 606 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	2c	2,756$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.18	167	7.8%13 W · 154 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbd9…ff26backed Yes	1c	2,745$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.56	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	2cpaid	+25%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,720$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.13	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	2c	2,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.77	411	23.1%95 W · 316 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	1c	2,301$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	2c	2,091$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.59	520	28.3%147 W · 373 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ec…c5d6backed Yes	0c	2,067$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	2,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.12	346	15.6%54 W · 292 L	-9.8wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	2c	1,980$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.73	37	2.7%1 W · 36 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	2c	1,742$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.33	584	22.1%129 W · 455 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	4c	1,540$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.32	120	23.3%28 W · 92 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	5c	1,345$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.25	423	19.4%82 W · 341 L	-19.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	2c	1,200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6293…d14dbacked Yes	1c	1,200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-85.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	1,100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.85	587	11.4%67 W · 520 L	+20.1wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	2c	1,062$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.72	245	22.4%55 W · 190 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	1c	1,045$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.2	458	23.4%107 W · 351 L	-19.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	1,000$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.71	1,062	13.7%145 W · 917 L	+38.5wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-15%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	508	19.1%97 W · 411 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	2c	900$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.3	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	2c	822.79$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.64	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	819.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	789	8.7%69 W · 720 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	2c	695.68$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	574	29.6%170 W · 404 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	2c	672.53$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	654	11%72 W · 582 L	+10.6wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	644.51$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1,041	11%115 W · 926 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e92…c3d0backed Yes	18c	600$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa50b…9814backed Yes	2c	599.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	7c	599$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.28	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	545.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	809	11.1%90 W · 719 L	+29.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	521.87$417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.37	550	75.1%413 W · 137 L	+34.9wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	20c	509.23$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.85	736	15.2%112 W · 624 L	+12.2wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2807…ce58backed Yes	5c	507.12$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.39	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	17c	479.6$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.34	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	3c	470.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	200	14%28 W · 172 L	+6.3wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc831…0111backed Yes	2c	420$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	436	19.3%84 W · 352 L	+24.1wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	3c	385.41$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	192	18.8%36 W · 156 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	10c	332.41$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	18c	313$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.34	461	11.3%52 W · 409 L	-6.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	105	4.8%5 W · 100 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x623d…87f4backed Yes	20c	300$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.3	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	278.57$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.71	894	18.7%167 W · 727 L	+10.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	4c	256.28$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	112	25%28 W · 84 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+37.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x360e…c462backed Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	42	23.8%10 W · 32 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	17cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	20c	181.3$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	156	13.5%21 W · 135 L	-9.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87d7…6819backed Yes	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde0e…5df8backed Yes	20c	125$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	9c	123.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.22	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes	19c	115.79$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	94	18.1%17 W · 77 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3464…890dbacked Yes	19c	106.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	20c	104.7$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.94	249	24.9%62 W · 187 L	-13.6wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b18…5ac2backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	80	20%16 W · 64 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+13%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29ee…4f76backed Yes	20c	89.15$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.83	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No	80c	78$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	652	21.5%140 W · 512 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	18c	77$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd580…73ddbacked Yes	20c	60$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa71e…8c27backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x891c…e455backed No	80c	24$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	14	100%14 W · 0 L	+2.9wins	+0.21per pick	79cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event