Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f7308b627bf74af905c384a04a48713d9b5e9d9442e22ca7811d7fc564978a

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $396,144
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $302,102

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,144 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 355 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	30c	9,246$2,759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,758.89	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	42c	8,000$3,343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,343.38	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	9c	7,244$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.52	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	18c	7,089$1,249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,249.21	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No	74c	6,745$4,988 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,756.18	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	14c	6,723$954 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$954.48	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	29c	6,679$1,942 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,941.84	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	33c	6,338$2,102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,102.28	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	22c	5,747$1,282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,281.56	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes	30c	5,171$1,565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,564.75	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	5,171$816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$816.4	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa43e…ec90backed No	76c	4,740$3,581 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,159.12	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	4,500$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	10c	4,117$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.07	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	26c	3,942$1,015 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,015.06	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	23c	3,472$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.99	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	22c	3,392$730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$730.43	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	34c	3,351$1,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,135.7	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb36…a357backed Yes	16c	3,300$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539.46	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	69c	3,258$2,237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,020.81	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd926…6edbbacked Yes	1c	3,143$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+2.4wins	+0.09per pick	22cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	9c	3,000$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	17c	2,931$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.15	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	68c	2,696$1,845 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$851.24	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	34c	2,607$879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$879.09	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	5c	2,596$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.8	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	10c	2,540$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.44	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	15c	2,266$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.31	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No	75c	2,183$1,648 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$535.73	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	14c	2,149$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.96	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	26c	2,052$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.35	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	1c	2,050$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3758…5c70backed Yes	29c	1,991$569 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$568.79	38	50%19 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd7f…c0cebacked No	79c	1,981$1,567 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$414.09	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	41c	1,963$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$814.11	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	67c	1,872$1,245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$626.2	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	30c	1,856$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556.84	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	18c	1,846$331 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.04	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	32c	1,772$559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.99	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…daf3backed Yes	12c	1,700$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.04	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+7.9wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	20c	1,691$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.37	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	24c	1,690$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed No	60c	1,623$981 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$641.77	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes	12c	1,598$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.75	83	24.1%20 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5177…2d20backed Yes	27c	1,491$405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes	27c	1,489$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.1	167	41.3%69 W · 98 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	20c	1,447$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.84	60	30%18 W · 42 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	31c	1,440$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.27	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd00f…1ba0backed Yes	22c	1,400$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.96	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed Yes	23c	1,400$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.62	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	28c	1,391$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.92	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	19c	1,358$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.14	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	49c	1,252$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.92	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	14c	1,251$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.48	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	34c	1,200$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.68	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd6…200fbacked Yes	14c	1,136$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.16	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	20cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	9c	1,118$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.68	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes	18c	1,111$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	32c	1,101$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.97	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	23c	1,087$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.84	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	42c	1,083$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.62	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9068…e0d2backed Yes	41c	1,073$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.06	160	24.4%39 W · 121 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…2f8abacked No	71c	1,066$760 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.2	70	42.9%30 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	12c	1,032$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.06	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	7c	1,007$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.97	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	19c	1,000$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.65	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	7c	969.03$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.83	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xccd7…1a8dbacked Yes	18c	968.94$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.25	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-34%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	11c	948.36$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.52	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	39c	944.29$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.66	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	28c	913.5$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.09	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	19c	821.35$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.95	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d73…75a0backed Yes	52c	810$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.79	65	29.2%19 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x621e…b532backed Yes	8c	804.4$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.35	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	13c	800$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	79c	797.02$633 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.66	189	49.2%93 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	6c	790.26$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.51	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes	9c	750$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.2	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-83%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No	75c	747.23$559 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.73	142	19.7%28 W · 114 L	-11.6wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-46%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	12c	747$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.64	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes	9c	710$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.9	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes	49c	700$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	14c	699.74$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.18	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	18c	695.53$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.42	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0280…da32backed No	57c	679$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.9	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	57cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	19c	659.84$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.84	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	11c	649.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	34c	619.87$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.41	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked No	74c	599.98$445 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.99	280	34.3%96 W · 184 L	+3.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	31c	586$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.06	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	14c	572.38$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.72	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea40…2698backed Yes	32c	554.73$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.65	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No	77c	550.78$422 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.01	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299b…8994backed Yes	32c	548.03$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.37	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked No	64c	545.97$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.07	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	10c	521.9$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.53	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	16c	516.53$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.28	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No	69c	508.89$353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$156.27	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	15c	500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event