Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d74e1a1d42864c4e93a93db252d0c7d10cf2241169606f58e84523c8e17c672

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 9, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $361,019
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $231,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $361,019 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 338 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	29c	8,610$2,539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,538.82	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	8c	7,559$571 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$571.4	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	48c	6,000$2,879 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,879.03	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	16c	5,897$951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$950.56	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	5,647$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.2	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b1c…5fe8backed Yes	7c	5,110$359 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.49	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	5,066$643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$643.31	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	2c	4,728$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.13	96	14.6%14 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	3c	4,614$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.05	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	3c	4,446$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.65	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	20c	4,393$894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.63	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	11c	3,893$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.83	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	10c	3,803$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.83	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	21c	3,743$804 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$803.63	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	11c	3,694$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.82	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	30c	3,574$1,079 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,078.95	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	19c	3,479$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$677.47	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	3,402$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.87	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	4c	3,309$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.56	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	12c	2,939$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.96	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No	74c	2,910$2,149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$761.45	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	16c	2,874$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450.97	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	2c	2,811$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.97	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No	52c	2,796$1,452 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,343.95	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ee…6b9bbacked Yes	15c	2,566$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.46	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	28c	2,500$689 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$688.86	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	3c	2,480$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.06	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	13c	2,354$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.51	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	10c	2,290$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.86	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	22c	2,286$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.86	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Yes	1c	2,170$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.11	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	17c	2,120$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353.18	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	24c	2,085$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f57…27e4backed Yes	27c	2,063$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.06	71	21.1%15 W · 56 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes	19c	2,045$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$392.35	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	33c	2,000$667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$667	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes	3c	1,997$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.55	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	22c	1,929$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.68	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	70c	1,910$1,346 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$564.25	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	71c	1,894$1,350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$543.35	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	23c	1,826$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.07	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x697b…d152backed Yes	28c	1,785$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+2.4wins	+0.16per pick	31cpaid	+71.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes	30c	1,743$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed Yes	25c	1,635$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.26	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	1c	1,500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc622…e1a4backed Yes	18c	1,466$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.74	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	29cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35af…94bbbacked Yes	4c	1,462$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.26	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	4c	1,416$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.14	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	3c	1,413$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.96	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	48c	1,407$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.48	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	18c	1,357$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.02	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43eb…e6c0backed Yes	38c	1,352$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$508.96	82	24.4%20 W · 62 L	-6.6wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	27c	1,342$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.42	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac43…3a33backed Yes	24c	1,338$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.23	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+15%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	1,293$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.44	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d73…75a0backed Yes	42c	1,290$544 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.76	65	29.2%19 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	1c	1,235$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaabb…daf3backed Yes	26c	1,200$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.6	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+7.9wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No	78c	1,198$940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.68	113	59.3%67 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes	3c	1,181$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.65	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	13c	1,173$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.57	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	16c	1,153$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.75	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	12c	1,106$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.64	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9068…e0d2backed Yes	14c	1,095$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.07	160	24.4%39 W · 121 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	37c	1,054$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.3	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	17c	1,032$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3758…5c70backed Yes	24c	1,023$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.22	38	50%19 W · 19 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	8c	985.23$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.99	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	3c	970$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.19	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	20c	900$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x254b…232bbacked Yes	2c	898.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	28cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	29c	870.26$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.97	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	8c	854.64$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.27	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9611…e89ebacked Yes	11c	847.82$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x055a…7bbcbacked No	80c	816.04$653 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$163.51	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ce…f073backed No	80c	800$640 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	17	82.4%14 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	72cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	15c	800$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	2c	769.31$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	76c	761$576 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.34	197	56.9%112 W · 85 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a79…e2afbacked No	77c	749.22$574 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.84	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	17c	744.01$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.03	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	21c	736.63$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.77	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes	7c	709.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.76	345	15.9%55 W · 290 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	22c	676.02$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0428…b167backed Yes	2c	659$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.34	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	79c	656.58$517 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$139.22	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	18c	635.41$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.72	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	18c	633.33$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.96	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked No	78c	614.32$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.32	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes	26c	600$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.94	207	23.7%49 W · 158 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	29c	598.14$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.26	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes	25c	563.13$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.44	342	15.8%54 W · 288 L	+20.9wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	8c	554.3$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.99	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81fb…25f3backed No	78c	513.88$401 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.23	34	79.4%27 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	77cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	12c	508.27$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.86	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5312…9e9bbacked Yes	9c	505.73$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.29	53	22.6%12 W · 41 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+40.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	12c	500$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	52c	500$260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.5	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.49	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	13c	494.27$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.5	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event