Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf380483f16bf43029a8bee76ea573f3ca8105285f03ca1f863e86c63e40ebfba

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $280,044
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $174,594

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $280,044 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	16,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.5	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	0c	9,926$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	9,593$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.69	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	1c	9,117$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.77	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	7,111$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	7,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	6,467$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.93	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	6,250$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	6,123$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.19	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	6,038$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	0c	5,513$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.67	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	5,418$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.18	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	5,410$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.15	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	5,302$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	5,036$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.32	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	4,849$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.79	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	4,329$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.93	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes	0c	4,257$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	1c	3,212$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.52	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	0c	3,076$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.31	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	2,590$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.97	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	1c	2,166$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.83	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6293…d14dbacked Yes	1c	1,750$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-85.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	2c	1,584$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	1c	1,510$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	2c	1,231$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.36	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,050$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.43	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	1c	895.12$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e92…c3d0backed Yes	15c	600$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	12c	479.73$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.57	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	8c	305$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x623d…87f4backed Yes	17c	300$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8965…00b7backed Yes	14c	247.15$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	25cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fba…bd5abacked Yes	5c	203.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	19c	152.76$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x87d7…6819backed Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	13c	125.68$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.95	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	16c	113.75$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes	16c	111.25$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	109.71$88 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.94	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes	13c	82.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+4.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x79bb…ee64backed Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d06…b2eabacked Yes	16c	62.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	67	44.8%30 W · 37 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event