Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50fa6851db507ce72483271f641b5b2b5700ba38e3d61ff6ba025a60c89b07e0

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $847,946
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $610,215

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $847,946 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 750 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	1c	53,921$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.05	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0dcb…a7b4backed Yes	35c	20,995$7,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,440.35	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	35c	18,626$6,535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,534.53	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	15c	17,688$2,643 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,643.45	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe823…2a61backed Yes	17c	13,037$2,231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,231	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	+2.6wins	+0.08per pick	23cpaid	+97.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	0c	9,652$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	17c	9,584$1,617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,617.14	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	13c	9,453$1,271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,271.2	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	48c	9,114$4,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,399.81	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes	17c	9,084$1,536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,535.89	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	16cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	23c	8,693$2,037 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,036.72	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	33c	8,148$2,661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,660.89	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	35c	7,503$2,646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,645.77	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	19c	6,721$1,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,291.31	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	20c	6,342$1,275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,274.57	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1498…9f8ebacked No	73c	6,107$4,450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,656.47	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	25cpaid	-79.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	8c	6,000$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.6	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe998…8347backed Yes	38c	5,509$2,073 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,073.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	14c	5,413$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$767.05	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	55c	5,383$2,943 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,942.56	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb603…58febacked Yes	25c	5,373$1,343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,343.49	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	24c	5,139$1,257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,256.97	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	26c	4,694$1,230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,230	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No	61c	4,586$2,819 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,766.92	49	65.3%32 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+12%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	4c	4,519$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.5	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	46c	4,459$2,057 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,056.9	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	21c	4,000$851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$851.24	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	11c	3,900$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.85	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	31c	3,858$1,213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,212.68	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	30c	3,391$1,022 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,022.08	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	35c	3,340$1,178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,178	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa028…0f33backed Yes	37c	3,197$1,169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,169.48	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	3,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	19c	3,001$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.4	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes	22c	2,940$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.26	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8575…87febacked No	66c	2,829$1,865 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$964.23	89	60.7%54 W · 35 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	23c	2,802$648 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$648.38	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes	64c	2,750$1,772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,772.37	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	27c	2,742$733 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$733.05	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	33c	2,584$857 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$857.36	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	26c	2,550$657 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$657.45	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	15c	2,548$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.68	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	8c	2,500$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.5	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c3f…f75dbacked Yes	48c	2,491$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	25c	2,425$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$614.42	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No	36c	2,402$860 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,542.23	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	36c	2,346$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$854.81	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	74c	2,323$1,719 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$603.9	309	55%170 W · 139 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed Yes	17c	2,298$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.33	142	19.7%28 W · 114 L	-11.6wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-46%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	5c	2,292$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.1	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No	71c	2,093$1,480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$612.82	82	53.7%44 W · 38 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	65c	2,086$1,348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$738.34	241	55.6%134 W · 107 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	21c	2,073$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.07	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	40c	2,050$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$824.99	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	70c	2,005$1,403 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$601.36	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	51	0%0 W · 51 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	18c	1,861$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$331.53	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed Yes	35c	1,852$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	33c	1,808$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$593.87	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	15c	1,802$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.01	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7368…fd66backed No	63c	1,802$1,141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$660.43	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	63cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	21c	1,786$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.92	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cbb…41aebacked Yes	48c	1,772$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$854.8	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+110.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	17c	1,749$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.38	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e0…44e0backed Yes	44c	1,739$757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$757.21	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e93…be55backed Yes	17c	1,702$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.11	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.4wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No	75c	1,693$1,268 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.73	154	55.2%85 W · 69 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	14c	1,693$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.24	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	5c	1,674$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	25c	1,672$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.08	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6a…61f0backed Yes	32c	1,655$526 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.22	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	12c	1,647$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.28	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd969…b9b9backed Yes	29c	1,636$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.42	127	20.5%26 W · 101 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	5c	1,627$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.14	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f13…1631backed Yes	37c	1,604$592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$592.01	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	35c	1,563$548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.54	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	46c	1,546$715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.34	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	46c	1,516$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.21	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	14c	1,500$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.79	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	18c	1,500$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.5	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…ae13backed Yes	32c	1,419$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43eb…e6c0backed Yes	10c	1,404$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.5	82	24.4%20 W · 62 L	-6.6wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1740…d7c0backed No	66c	1,404$924 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$479.35	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61e7…6e8bbacked Yes	43c	1,397$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f5c…70e8backed No	68c	1,387$940 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$447	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-64%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	17c	1,385$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.58	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	22c	1,384$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.5	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	9c	1,380$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.9	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	57c	1,371$775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775.17	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No	66c	1,357$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$456.25	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	30c	1,301$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.87	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44fe…5c40backed No	78c	1,300$1,014 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$286.35	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	+52.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x10ea…02edbacked Yes	12c	1,289$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.17	135	11.9%16 W · 119 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+37.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3811…106fbacked Yes	6c	1,273$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.28	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+91.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6660…172bbacked No	63c	1,238$781 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$456.74	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fa…abcfbacked No	78c	1,234$965 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.04	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.9wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	3c	1,224$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.63	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42ed…5ebabacked Yes	55c	1,209$671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$670.55	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	20c	1,206$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.74	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event