Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1d6d5be70c56615034613c2d820121a61b75d864c28d2a92e5481d767c18cce

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $442,729
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $152,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $442,729 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	24,591$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.59	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	19,127$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.64	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4c4…c488backed Yes	0c	13,779$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.78	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	11,750$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.45	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	9,119$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.67	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	6,698$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.35	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	6,282$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	0c	5,763$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.53	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95f5…7d1cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,890$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb520…78cdbacked Yes	0c	4,308$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	3c	4,300$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.1	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	4,069$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.65	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	9c	4,000$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.27	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,651$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.23	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	5c	3,122$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.1	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	4c	3,045$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.54	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	5c	3,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	2,870$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.95	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	10c	2,082$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.11	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes	7c	2,000$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.83	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	6c	2,000$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	3c	1,903$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.09	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ec9…5f0dbacked Yes	1c	1,816$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-91%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa23e…1faebacked Yes	4c	1,793$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	10c	1,676$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.76	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes	11c	1,635$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	2c	1,612$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.42	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	10c	1,584$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.3	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	5c	1,499$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.84	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	1,479$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.47	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,452$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.9	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	1,364$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.79	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes	1c	1,100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	317	43.2%137 W · 180 L	+28.2wins	+0.09per pick	34cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	4c	1,087$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.5	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	5c	1,023$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.7	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.8	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	2c	853.07$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	11c	837.86$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.26	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	2c	781.36$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.58	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fca…f1f0backed Yes	6c	766.67$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b19…ca35backed Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	2c	697.23$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.34	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	659.56$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.84	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	3c	606.14$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.96	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	600$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.25	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	588.55$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.89	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a34…6c6cbacked Yes	7c	568.8$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	3c	555.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	535$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	9c	533.06$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.88	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	7c	478.41$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.21	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	111	18.9%21 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes	14c	450$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	108	20.4%22 W · 86 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	6c	439.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.14	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecb0…a422backed Yes	3c	433.3$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	168	14.9%25 W · 143 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec07…ca80backed Yes	12c	414.28$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.41	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+58.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	10c	404.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.44	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	15c	400$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…1bd7backed Yes	3c	380$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4473…28adbacked Yes	4c	375$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	184	19%35 W · 149 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+42.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa757…2438backed Yes	10c	312.91$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	10%2 W · 18 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64b0…f102backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-10%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6173…d511backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	97	43.3%42 W · 55 L	-4.1wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca6…964bbacked Yes	8c	300$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	25	4%1 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…e9bfbacked Yes	12c	220$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	71	26.8%19 W · 52 L	-3.9wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	5c	212.07$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65fc…beacbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac3e…e416backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a0…4230backed Yes	13c	199.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	168	31.5%53 W · 115 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-10.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	10c	190$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	12c	166.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes	12c	150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	58	43.1%25 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9364…01cfbacked Yes	11c	120.45$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b33…6abcbacked Yes	11c	109.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	12c	108.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6709…385bbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	442	27.4%121 W · 321 L	-21.9wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45fb…f9c0backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd969…b9b9backed Yes	15c	99.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	127	20.5%26 W · 101 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	17$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.4	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event