Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf037787954346ca51823b9db183015cb77ddf0697b1639fb4a68629ec2ee2cbc

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $208,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,994 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	0c	25,293$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.64	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	0c	25,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	12,726$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.78	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes	0c	10,167$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,110$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	10,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	8,321$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	5,817$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.37	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	2c	3,091$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.77	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	2,334$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.13	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	2c	2,060$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.47	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,911$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	1,541$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.97	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	999.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8a…006ebacked Yes	3c	999.97$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	2c	983.13$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.65	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	800$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.4	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	3c	583.44$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.39	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7740…3429backed Yes	3c	400$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event