Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8db6a14b087478038b536e76cddaede47cc051a0f4762efdd1e1699368026db

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $537,232
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $225,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $537,232 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	0c	61,110$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.66	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	1c	51,430$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.91	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	49,999$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	30,206$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	26,618$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.85	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	18,880$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.06	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	8,678$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.71	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	8,127$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.56	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	1c	7,736$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.53	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	7c	6,262$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.48	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	6,185$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.53	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	12c	5,435$672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$672.21	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	5,210$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.68	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	4,968$689 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$689.06	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	13c	4,500$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$588	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	6c	4,410$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.49	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	4c	4,231$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.66	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	18c	4,050$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724.47	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	3,937$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.44	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	3,300$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.3	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	6c	3,178$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.7	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	2,657$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	0c	2,611$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	4c	2,064$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.7	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,960$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.3	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	8c	1,938$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.67	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	19c	1,927$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.07	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	6c	1,919$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.14	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb3de…c4f9backed Yes	1c	1,875$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,862$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.42	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	1,756$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.26	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc451…958cbacked Yes	21c	1,665$344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$344	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	9c	1,611$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x299b…8994backed Yes	16c	1,563$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	3c	1,500$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.5	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	6c	1,400$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.1	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes	15c	1,390$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.53	106	17%18 W · 88 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	1c	1,385$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.15	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	15c	1,353$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95f5…7d1cbacked Yes	1c	1,341$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	17c	1,320$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.23	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	7c	1,305$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.95	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	1,279$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.82	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	1,220$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	1,064$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	17c	1,051$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.36	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x97ff…f76abacked Yes	3c	1,016$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes	16c	1,000$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.53	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	999.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	7c	946.26$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.86	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c06…a2b8backed Yes	14c	929.6$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.64	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+47.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	10c	911.5$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.23	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	2c	897.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	15c	895.15$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.42	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	10c	851.1$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.27	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	808.71$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	6c	760.07$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b19…ca35backed Yes	17c	748.19$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.8	61	29.5%18 W · 43 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	738.81$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.73	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	2c	710.3$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.71	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	2c	672.27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	96	14.6%14 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2cc…b624backed Yes	15c	666.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	111	21.6%24 W · 87 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	17c	655$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.5	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	2c	650$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	2c	647.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.91	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	17c	637.66$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.45	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…1b38backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	17c	605.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	15c	600$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08f1…9a02backed Yes	17c	590.28$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	57	19.3%11 W · 46 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+82.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf79c…94eabacked Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-5.9wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	579.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	568.97$455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.79	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd87f…d3e4backed Yes	18c	566.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	139	17.3%24 W · 115 L	-8.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	10c	555.64$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.19	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	10c	545.2$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.34	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…d9e5backed Yes	16c	539.16$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.74	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	9c	530.79$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.24	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf079…550bbacked Yes	20c	520.83$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.17	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64a3…450abacked Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	50	68%34 W · 16 L	+6.0wins	+0.12per pick	56cpaid	+27.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	12c	499.99$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b4…7df3backed Yes	17c	499.97$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.99	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+100.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	488.77$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.27	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77b9…0d39backed Yes	17c	486.75$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.75	108	20.4%22 W · 86 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	6c	457.12$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.43	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5d…3e6fbacked Yes	18c	444.44$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	16c	400$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6173…d511backed Yes	18c	400$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-2.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	13c	400$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.03	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64cc…0da1backed Yes	18c	398.25$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	111	18.9%21 W · 90 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47d7…df89backed Yes	15c	379.94$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.99	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f13…1631backed Yes	18c	349.21$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.62	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	18c	335.19$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event