TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb90f…ea7a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
331
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Music, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Music at 54 out of 100; worst Champions League at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT19040%76 W · 114 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 190 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$104.08
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$3,200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,200
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+212.5%+$106.25
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spain to score first vs. Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Lionel Messi: 1+ assistsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Spain vs. Argentina: Spain O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spain vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will England win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+300%+$450
France vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$89.86
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 England?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+1,150%+$575
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
England vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$177.36
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 190 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT13051.5%67 W · 63 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 130 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+113.8%+$683.05
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+172.8%+$259.16
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$127.78
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$176.09
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$95.61
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$170.27
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$257.14
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$397.67
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$156.41
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+525%+$210
76ers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$62.36
Showing 25 of 130 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+43.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.