TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and 280m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$81,799
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,265

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,799 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9951…11bdbacked Yes23c10,875$2,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,452.541855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed No75c9,500$7,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4112334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ea…a2c5backed Yes0c7,366$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes31c6,474$1,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,983.9532639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8eb…8473backed Yes1c3,221$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.243010%3 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb028…8686backed Yes13c2,724$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.7623639.8%94 W · 142 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c2,646$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.386917.4%12 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed No72c2,372$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.6515054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes6c2,043$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.41429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes6c2,030$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.636023.3%14 W · 46 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick13cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes28c1,941$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.2647328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed No75c1,000$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2892…71ddbacked Yes35c985.76$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34819532.8%64 W · 131 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes25c980.08$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.623130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdf1…7195backed Yes16c593.21$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.87933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+38.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No62c568.43$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.9210339.8%41 W · 62 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1214…ebecbacked Yes2c540.01$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.324918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-41.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe241…5b42backed No80c516.99$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.12560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes12c513.52$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.921,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes7c513.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.2170%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe41…9f23backed No76c500$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1182343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c496.12$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3519133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No79c490$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.438653.5%46 W · 40 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No62c435.89$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.0211924.4%29 W · 90 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-45.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb90f…ea7abacked Yes23c432$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6883…b69bbacked Yes8c428.05$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bb8…b136backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12140%0 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No79c398.03$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.571735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae0…b747backed Yes11c394.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0552…0cb5backed Yes14c351.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes13c349.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4517017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No66c347.96$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.227537.3%28 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-42.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4113…042ebacked Yes15c342.47$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes16c336.43$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.35710.5%6 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No71c321.56$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.365339.6%21 W · 32 L-6.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9e78…c340backed Yes9c320.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cd1…9c20backed No65c313.8$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.87627.6%21 W · 55 L-6.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d5c…46c3backed Yes13c309.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes16c300$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.812936.4%47 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb1…3020backed Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-80.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes12c274.87$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.541549.7%15 W · 139 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x605a…31c1backed Yes32c268.31$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes15c260$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7613119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes13c250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6923321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c2…1398backed Yes9c250$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51711.8%2 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc877…9aacbacked No71c247.89$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32f4…c885backed Yes9c237.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2216614.5%24 W · 142 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes31c219$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.641241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No75c216.11$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.2216737.1%62 W · 105 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes6c213.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4510139.6%40 W · 61 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes15c211.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.684748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No69c210.34$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.294843.8%21 W · 27 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb413…adc3backed Yes19c209.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a72…a2abbacked Yes29c208$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.11922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-32.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e4…4d33backed Yes9c206$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.79714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-78%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda00…61b4backed Yes14c193.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed No71c185$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.651030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes11c179.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.193414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-75.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9842…5ac8backed Yes20c175.57$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.731931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x271e…f001backed Yes29c173$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No77c160$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.426446.9%30 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed No78c144.24$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.161250%6 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes22c143$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.881127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba9f…87acbacked Yes28c141.37$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.34825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes9c140$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.49771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbed…60b9backed Yes29c130$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+185.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf65d…b385backed Yes15c119.64$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.45633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed Yes22c118$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.031172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes9c117.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.85894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43fd…59d3backed No69c105$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.87955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102360.9%14 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-65.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6163…07a3backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.184148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes14c89.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.562520%5 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed No64c87.11$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb226…4163backed No69c86.66$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.65560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…d338backed No66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.761136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes30c73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.83616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick26cpaid+2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7790…427abacked Yes16c70.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.47812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-79.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb382…f229backed Yes23c67.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.81850%4 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes26c64.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.613034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.621163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdba1…d0e5backed No69c58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-50.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aed…df39backed No65c54.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf9…d43abacked Yes23c53.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40c2…b2fcbacked No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.868461.9%52 W · 32 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x91e5…0947backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed No77c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.282462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.82227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-57.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed No76c47.06$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.5214425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a0a…2f0cbacked Yes25c46.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.88250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+276.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No68c41.18$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.063250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No70c37.8$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.23966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed No65c36.72$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.85933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfd8…0fe9backed No66c36.52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4216624.1%40 W · 126 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5004…9999backed No70c34.81$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1946…6367backed No79c33.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35d7…28f8backed Yes33c30.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.