Movies · resolved market
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d5e8fa89034edbc9991dbbf5edc6579bce4be6c3b965689f2e2997c376bdce0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $229,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $245,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 192 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc60…af79backed No | 47c | 32,620$15,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,298.26 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…11bdbacked Yes | 54c | 20,123$10,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,337.36 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 68c | 18,847$12,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,012.11 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 19c | 11,351$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,148.22 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed No | 17c | 8,918$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…7195backed No | 5c | 7,698$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 76c | 5,859$4,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,432.56 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed No | 2c | 4,746$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 79c | 3,366$2,644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.27 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 19c | 2,608$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.3 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 32c | 2,469$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.83 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…5318backed No | 2c | 2,408$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked No | 28c | 2,326$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 2,313$1,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,375.46 | 82 | 25.6%21 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…8220backed Yes | 48c | 2,278$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 16c | 2,122$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.96 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2db…9070backed No | 5c | 2,104$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 23c | 2,088$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.91 | 119 | 24.4%29 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…a1f0backed Yes | 29c | 2,077$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,475.87 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 4c | 2,046$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.02 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 1,813$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.34 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 37c | 1,780$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.51 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 56c | 1,605$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 18c | 1,540$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.56 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -7.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8c…757abacked No | 10c | 1,427$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 13c | 1,411$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.14 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 1,378$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.51 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 29c | 1,338$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.49 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 22c | 1,302$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.07 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ea…ea62backed Yes | 25c | 1,278$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.97 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,247$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.23 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed No | 17c | 1,180$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 73c | 1,153$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.72 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…57ebbacked No | 17c | 1,146$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 58c | 1,053$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.13 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 28c | 945.46$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.56 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 22c | 859.43$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.17 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…042ebacked Yes | 7c | 748.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 733.62$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.49 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe19c…6c2cbacked No | 21c | 727.26$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 72c | 702.43$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.83 | 103 | 39.8%41 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked No | 31c | 635.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fc…49d7backed Yes | 16c | 602.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…08a4backed Yes | 10c | 515.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +930.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 26c | 499.99$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.16 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…0664backed No | 3c | 492.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 53c | 487.83$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.78 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 463.73$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.11 | 124 | 42.7%53 W · 71 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…76a7backed No | 13c | 461.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 18c | 460.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…91d5backed No | 15c | 440$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 421$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked Yes | 28c | 419.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.71 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 45c | 398.03$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.53 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 10c | 394.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…b747backed Yes | 65c | 392.61$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2213…492cbacked No | 8c | 367.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 71c | 347.96$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.1 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 16c | 330.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 86 | 38.4%33 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 324.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.72 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08fe…8892backed No | 16c | 322.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b9…04f6backed Yes | 13c | 322.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +697.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cdb…ba6cbacked No | 15c | 320$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bd…26adbacked No | 11c | 318.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf697…c72cbacked Yes | 64c | 310.1$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.1 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f16…6088backed Yes | 16c | 303.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +404.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b85…a8a7backed No | 41c | 300.8$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 29c | 272.92$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 271.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked No | 27c | 264.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.97 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 77c | 261.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.17 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37fc…7717backed Yes | 48c | 250.87$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.87 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f33…54fcbacked No | 15c | 250$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 47c | 246.27$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.73 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 245$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.25 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fda…bc2dbacked No | 38c | 231.36$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…dde5backed No | 27c | 224.88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -78%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63e…084abacked No | 6c | 223.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…e9cbbacked No | 15c | 221.87$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 44c | 215$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.93 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 10c | 214.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.77 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…35f0backed No | 14c | 214$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 71c | 205.81$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.23 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…60b9backed Yes | 15c | 204.18$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +185.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked No | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…4d33backed No | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -78%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…9aeabacked No | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 18c | 199.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe86b…9371backed No | 24c | 199.98$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 62c | 198.36$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.86 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff13…6d35backed No | 10c | 191.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 65c | 190.81$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…2e46backed No | 72c | 186.38$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb90f…ea7abacked Yes | 55c | 182.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…06cdbacked No | 17c | 178.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…04c0backed No | 24c | 176.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…6b6dbacked Yes | 20c | 175$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…d305backed Yes | 50c | 169.95$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 51c | 164.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed No | 16c | 161$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 200m and 220m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 220m and 240m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and 280m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.