TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 220m and 240m?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,671
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,671 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c2,412$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.7147328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes16c2,300$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.5329423.5%69 W · 225 L+0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-43%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc60…af79backed Yes13c1,712$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.562334.8%8 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9afc…314bbacked Yes1c1,669$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8770%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…8220backed Yes28c1,534$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.45728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes2c1,459$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.32244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked Yes3c1,391$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.823351.5%17 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No67c1,056$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.5832639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf638…aa50backed Yes2c1,027$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4870%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No75c1,001$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.336747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cb1…3020backed Yes1c999.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-80.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes33c750$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.57735.1%27 W · 50 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…3405backed Yes3c733.33$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes4c672.96$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9714425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeff9…f8c5backed Yes13c656.88$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c634.25$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.011,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed Yes39c600$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2343336.4%12 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-46.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No78c600$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1345362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No65c542.81$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.616642.4%28 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x468c…151ebacked Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x235e…5673backed No64c500$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+37%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb5f…c111backed Yes40c475$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1903129%9 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8eb…8473backed Yes10c450$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.53010%3 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes18c404.55$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0319133%63 W · 128 L+0.5wins0.00per pick33cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed Yes14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5617017.1%29 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes37c400$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1482520%5 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-53.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfee9…a2d7backed Yes25c397.58$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No80c387.88$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.8610436.5%38 W · 66 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-40.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes35c303.15$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3723130.3%70 W · 161 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306229%18 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1145129.4%15 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb413…adc3backed Yes9c277.78$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9842…5ac8backed Yes12c253.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.341931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed No61c250$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.57839.7%31 W · 47 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+11.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes25c250$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.513119.1%25 W · 106 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes26c249.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.0523321.5%50 W · 183 L+1.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-34%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes15c210$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.54748.9%23 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd290…ac52backed Yes15c203.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066d…07bcbacked Yes13c171.32$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.362020%4 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-69.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No61c163.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.822356.5%13 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572227.3%6 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-57.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c147$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6887033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcffc…6cacbacked Yes34c147$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes12c146.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.565710.5%6 W · 51 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-54.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes24c143$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.761127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No65c128.76$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.55147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x998b…db96backed Yes11c125.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.34185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-76.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No65c125.36$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.333336.4%12 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf6d9…e296backed Yes37c108.11$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-65.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0082…5fc4backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1817041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea31…a889backed Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1314530.3%44 W · 101 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdbb…b550backed Yes12c99.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xead3…b125backed No61c87.43$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+43.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed Yes19c87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3490%0 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f0…78babacked Yes38c86$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9362…d4a4backed Yes19c84.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.031947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick60cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4061…dde5backed Yes19c78.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-78%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdba1…d0e5backed Yes33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-50.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No76c70.65$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.313100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes23c58$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.183630.6%11 W · 25 L-5.2wins-0.14per pick45cpaid-44%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x6406…bc04backed No59c57.2$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…6b2bbacked Yes36c56.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.48560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5cd…fa5ebacked Yes38c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7790…427abacked Yes29c51.72$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-79.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick46cpaid-5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6793…1869backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…74f9backed Yes37c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.25425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fa6…16f9backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2015054.7%82 W · 68 L+30.5wins+0.20per pick34cpaid+62.6%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.56855.9%38 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc18e…44e3backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0041…967cbacked Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick47cpaid-68.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x239f…8b82backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.51540%6 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-42.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x734b…2a2cbacked No71c47.97$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed Yes24c45.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.852347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ef…ebcabacked Yes38c45$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.11668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes36c38.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7813034.6%45 W · 85 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf65d…b385backed Yes36c35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x936a…7a5abacked No74c34.48$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.96580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1946…6367backed No79c33.5$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.951070%7 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed No64c25.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+63.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3134…746abacked Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No78c24.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.353748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0476…50b3backed No63c21.81$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No74c19.9$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.176656.1%37 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e7…66f7backed No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd43f…c66bbacked No78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.