Movies · resolved market
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf71bb24b08fce6567a89f641986f53a7e4bdcce1c5d6944a070dc2683dd915cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…af79backed Yes | 4c | 2,070$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf638…aa50backed Yes | 1c | 1,654$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8eb…8473backed Yes | 3c | 1,580$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,446$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,363$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4041…6f52backed Yes | 9c | 1,300$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 170 | 17.1%29 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…adc3backed Yes | 3c | 984.1$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 11c | 770.3$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.03 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7738…76a4backed Yes | 4c | 636.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 616.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfa…3c6fbacked Yes | 2c | 599.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 523.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 3c | 467.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 7c | 375.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 7c | 359.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 131 | 19.1%25 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 10c | 317.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 233 | 21.5%50 W · 183 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 260.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 8c | 210$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 11c | 152.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9687…1b7cbacked Yes | 8c | 143$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed No | 56c | 44.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 200m?this page
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 200m and 220m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 220m and 240m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 260m and 280m?No won
- Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.