Music · resolved market
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20e78e189bd0d2826aa19c265f6f2e1f07a30ec47cfbf13419579fc0f3b79084
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $212,637
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 14c | 117,971$16,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,744.4 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…92a7backed Yes | 13c | 3,700$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 1,899$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.9 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…19b8backed Yes | 11c | 1,034$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 933.9$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…d073backed Yes | 14c | 925.16$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 906.28$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 11c | 798.69$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 163 | 34.4%56 W · 107 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…02aabacked Yes | 12c | 701.28$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 690.8$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.66 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…3c96backed Yes | 13c | 483.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 18c | 371.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 62c | 365.18$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.57 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd91…6262backed Yes | 19c | 348.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 335.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked Yes | 12c | 330$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 300$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 280.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 5c | 276$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +202.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 12c | 249.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66d…caafbacked Yes | 61c | 192.39$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 16c | 186.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 11c | 168.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80e5…7134backed No | 76c | 151.08$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 138.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb90f…ea7abacked No | 77c | 129.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 126.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 11c | 114.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 109.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…e4d3backed Yes | 20c | 101.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e0…2c70backed Yes | 21c | 96.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734b…2a2cbacked Yes | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 15c | 78.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…2b23backed Yes | 17c | 75.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 77c | 70.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5e…2d1cbacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f9e4backed No | 77c | 50.45$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd67…77b2backed No | 73c | 38.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…eab1backed No | 75c | 27.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 78c | 26.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852d…f63abacked No | 80c | 24.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c9…567fbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8653…0d6bbacked No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bae…7e8cbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?this page
- Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in the US in June?No won
- Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June?No won
- Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit in the US in June?No won
- Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in the US in June?No won
- Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in the US in June?Yes won
- Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit in the US in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.