Music · resolved market
Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9e419d01580b7e5d43ac97a9f088140ce80e21c47a50a16101e6a712fcd2b80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,697
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,929
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,697 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8de5…2b04backed Yes | 15c | 21,897$3,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,392.63 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 27c | 2,255$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,645.82 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…92a7backed Yes | 21c | 2,200$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…3c1fbacked No | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed No | 56c | 979.42$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.01 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9578…f066backed No | 80c | 969.66$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.31 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 770.64$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.97 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 17c | 769.47$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9404…fcf0backed No | 42c | 530.85$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 477.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.52 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…02aabacked Yes | 18c | 475.31$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Yes | 65c | 463.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 71c | 419.39$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.82 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…19b8backed Yes | 51c | 398.95$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9f…43cebacked Yes | 16c | 344.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 319.34$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ab…534dbacked Yes | 61c | 313.97$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed No | 45c | 305.95$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.31 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 48c | 302.92$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.73 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 37c | 298.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.74 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x751f…e72cbacked Yes | 22c | 260.65$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 7c | 241.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 67 | 10.4%7 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…4282backed No | 53c | 232$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed No | 52c | 230.84$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90f…ea7abacked No | 43c | 230.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 17c | 220.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6c…116fbacked Yes | 61c | 163.77$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf849…a4e1backed Yes | 62c | 161.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…a144backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 114.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…978bbacked Yes | 53c | 99.14$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…d5c3backed No | 35c | 96.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed Yes | 18c | 82.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…ceffbacked Yes | 63c | 79.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 78.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…8292backed No | 47c | 74.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 69c | 52.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 50.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4304…5e7bbacked Yes | 43c | 45.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc00…95ccbacked Yes | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf088…00b7backed Yes | 59c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e29…a4a0backed No | 79c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3be…1015backed Yes | 63c | 31.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…fcdfbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7553…3741backed Yes | 64c | 28.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 56c | 28.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 76c | 26.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 54c | 25.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebd…7db6backed Yes | 52c | 21.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked No | 79c | 20.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 55c | 20.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Drake have a #1 hit in the US in June?this page
- Will Bruno Mars have a #1 hit in the US in June?No won
- Will Gracie Abrams have a #1 hit in the US in June?No won
- Will Kanye West have a #1 hit in the US in June?No won
- Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?No won
- Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June?Yes won
- Will Taylor Swift have a #1 hit in the US in June?Yes won
- Will The Weeknd have a #1 hit in the US in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.