NBA · resolved market
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7bcc8892de53920e83b7935847a6d8b1472cea90c72cb00c9c8e139e7e555ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $202,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $191,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $202,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed Yes | 1c | 20,443$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked Yes | 4c | 10,958$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.92 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…8779backed Yes | 2c | 8,645$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.82 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 2c | 7,088$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.61 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cce…6e85backed Yes | 8c | 4,314$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.91 | 220 | 39.1%86 W · 134 L | +14.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Yes | 3c | 3,952$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.71 | 180 | 31.7%57 W · 123 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1b…3ff7backed Yes | 2c | 3,025$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,016$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…00a7backed Yes | 4c | 2,638$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb334…1ae1backed Yes | 4c | 2,508$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 1c | 2,493$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 2,202$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 84 | 4.8%4 W · 80 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 1cpaid | +489.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 3c | 2,086$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.03 | 221 | 40.3%89 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 4c | 2,015$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.09 | 71 | 19.7%14 W · 57 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x926f…f72ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,768$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 1c | 1,501$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…de8dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,450$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 4c | 1,404$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 401 | 33.4%134 W · 267 L | +27.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Yes | 10c | 1,345$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.62 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,330$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528d…8a30backed Yes | 4c | 1,122$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc6…9092backed Yes | 4c | 1,114$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb09d…64c8backed Yes | 5c | 1,001$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e45…e832backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 1c | 951$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Yes | 4c | 942.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.16 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ab…9723backed Yes | 2c | 936.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 603 | 51.4%310 W · 293 L | +16.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40f2…a57cbacked Yes | 1c | 906.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d22…e2bbbacked Yes | 6c | 882.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Yes | 2c | 868.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe21…65e5backed Yes | 12c | 842.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…771abacked Yes | 2c | 824.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 6cpaid | +234%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…7750backed Yes | 2c | 808.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +149.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 763.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 146 | 34.9%51 W · 95 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f57…04bcbacked Yes | 2c | 749.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Yes | 18c | 679.25$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 381 | 52.8%201 W · 180 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…abc6backed Yes | 36c | 629.05$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f75…2cf5backed Yes | 4c | 600$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 580.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 150 | 10%15 W · 135 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…729bbacked Yes | 4c | 572.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…2949backed Yes | 9c | 547.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked Yes | 3c | 477$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53f…f9f0backed Yes | 3c | 436.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 13c | 424.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90f…ea7abacked Yes | 10c | 420.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30bb…f258backed Yes | 5c | 415.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…e224backed Yes | 4c | 410.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Yes | 4c | 373.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed Yes | 3c | 368.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7d…c01abacked Yes | 10c | 339.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…0df8backed Yes | 15c | 337.27$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d29…ea5dbacked Yes | 4c | 329.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 6c | 314.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9f…0e3abacked Yes | 5c | 303.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 50c | 290.84$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066b…4e8ebacked Yes | 13c | 286.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Yes | 9c | 229.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7846…7626backed Yes | 15c | 183.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 200 | 33%66 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf62f…859abacked Yes | 6c | 174$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Yes | 9c | 155.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 8c | 130.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Yes | 15c | 100.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.