NFL · resolved market
Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63cecb4e364ecf95e6c767e207dddee8c53df798209ac998cc67d87ddb806e4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $260,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $248,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2efd…be4cbacked No | 69c | 58,144$40,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,024.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3394…2373backed Yes | 31c | 58,144$18,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,024.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…0058backed Yes | 29c | 52,566$15,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,244.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe10…2a3fbacked No | 71c | 52,566$37,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,244.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Yes | 30c | 14,775$4,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,444.86 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,437$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.72 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,378$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.76 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 29c | 781.18$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.02 | 132 | 17.4%23 W · 109 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +104.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 631.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 27c | 541$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.66 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…4d16backed Yes | 7c | 489$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 30c | 419.29$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340d…0f96backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 30c | 383.53$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.06 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 80c | 368$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.39 | 647 | 47.3%306 W · 341 L | +42.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25a1…67b0backed No | 70c | 333.33$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked No | 70c | 280$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 73c | 220.43$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 220.29$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 70c | 213.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc3…34f1backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed No | 72c | 175$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 29c | 147.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 104 | 34.6%36 W · 68 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 68c | 145.12$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 22c | 103.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 87 | 29.9%26 W · 61 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 162 | 26.5%43 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…4e70backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 29c | 93.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 70c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6681…12ddbacked Yes | 29c | 72.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c98…a58bbacked No | 71c | 68.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490c…3093backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35a…2157backed Yes | 30c | 66.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e08…dfe0backed Yes | 29c | 45.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02d6…796dbacked Yes | 30c | 42.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 33c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 224 | 34.4%77 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Washington Commanders win the NFC East?this page
- Will the Dallas Cowboys win the NFC East?No won
- Will the New York Giants win the NFC East?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the NFC East?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.